On Friday, Supreme Court Justice, Ginsburg, died. Mitch McConnell are Donald Trump now moving rapidly to replace with a 3rd right wing nominee to the SCOTUS. Democrats mount feeble and futile defense, saying McConnell should not proceed with nomination based on McConnell’s own argument back in Feb. 2016 used to thwart the nomination of Obama’s Garland candidate; McConnell in reply expediting the nomination and promises Trump decision before Nov. 3 election.
The death of Ginsburg and quick replacement of another ultra conservative to SCOTUS has big implications for November’s election: it strengthens Trump’s strategy and plan to contest the election voting by mail process, declare it fraudulent (in select blue states), try to stop the counting of mail ballots, and have the Supreme Ct.–now in his pocket with 6-3 majority–cut off the vote counting, just as happened in Florida in 2000. Only this time not just in one state but across multiple states.
Trump’s strategy has become increasingly clear: create the public impression mail in voting is fraudulent and the basis for stopping the counting of mail ballots. This will be supported by what polls show as the likely way direct in person voting vs. mail voting will occur:
CNN polls show 53% of Biden supporters expect to vote by mail, while only 21% of Trump supporters will vote by mail. This will mean November 3 voting will show Trump winning by significant margins due to direct voting, confirmed by exit polls at the time. As mail in ballots will be counted, his lead will begin to fade in blue and swing states (though not likely in most red states due to widespread voter suppression). But before the mail in ballots do wipe out his lead, he’ll raise the ‘fraudulent’ voting claim, get Attorney General Barr to file injunctions to stop the vote count of mail in ballots, and push to the Supreme Court the approval to stop the vote count.
This is Florida’s 2000 election deja vu, except now in multiple states and not just involving voting irregularities in 3 counties in that state.
In 2000 the outcome was the Supreme Court de facto ‘selected’ the president, George W. Bush, with its 5-4 decision to stop the vote recount in Florida.
In 2020 the Supreme Court will be even more likely do the same–i.e. stop the vote count and ‘select’ Trump’– with a 6-3 vote. Except this time it will not even be a vote recount; it will be a first count of mail in ballot votes.
The 6-3 clear majority now gives Trump even more encouragement to implement this strategy: stop the vote count, direct the decision to the Supreme Court, and keep any resolution out of the US House of Representatives where, constitutionally it belongs.
Democrat leadership will be easily outmaneuvered in the Supreme Court nomination process about to begin. They will be outmaneuvered as well, I predict, in the post November 3 vote counting. The Democrats once again will prove themselves strategically and tactically inept in stopping Trump, as they have the entire previous four years.
One more nail will soon be hammered into the coffin of American Democracy, and this time a very large one.
Since the Republican and Democratic Party conventions in August I have been following and commenting on the unfolding of Trump’s strategy to engineer a legal de facto coup d’etat surrounding the November 3 elections. I have shared these reflections and observations in my almost daily tweets on the revealing of Trump’s strategy–as well as his statements showing his intent to destroy even the remaining remnants, as few as they are, of democratic and civil rights in America today in order to stay in power. Indeed, as he has publicly declared in his campaign speeches, he’s planning not only to win in November but is considering, as he put, “four more years after that, and maybe even four more, we’ll see”. In lock-step, his Attorney General, Bill Barr, has also publicly declared that protestors (including those protesting a future coup no doubt) should be considered “treasonous” and prosecuted under the sedition acts. For Trump too, protestors are “insurrectionists”, which means terrorists and ‘enemy combatants’ under the Patriot Act.
A political crisis, the dimensions of which have no precedent in America’s history, may be just around the corner. It’s negative impact on the present economic Great Recession 2.0 will be no less profound. It will ensure a further economic relapse and the W-Shape trajectory I’ve been predicting, or worse!
Addendum
The following are my comments on twitter (@drjackrasmus) ever since the two parties’ conventions, as it was becoming increasingly clear what Trump, Barr, McConnell, and the others have in mind, and are planning, for the November elections and its aftermath.
COMMENTARIES & REFLECTIONS ON TWITTER
Sep 19
In less than 12 hrs my previous post prediction confirmed: McConnell & Trump both say they’ll move rapidly toward confirming Trump’s 3rd nominee to SCOTUS. McConnell outmaneuvering Dems saying no Committee debate; he’ll move decision immediately to full Senate vote
Sep 18
Democrats will put up another feeble fight against McConnell/Trump’s 3rd nominee to SCOTUS. Dems will argue Mitch shot down Garland in Feb 2016 saying no nomination in election year & should do same in Oct 2020. Mitch’ll laugh and ram through nomination in <30 days
Sep 18
Justice Ginsburg has died. Trump will soon have 6-3 majority on SCOTUS. >55% Dems will vote by mail; only 21% Repubs. Trump will appear winner Nov. 3, but mail-ins reverse that. He’ll claim fraud & ask his 6-3 court to stop count in select blue states, like FL 2000
Sep 16
AG Barr today said protestors should be prosecuted for treason, meaning post Nov. 3 if you protest Trump’s de facto coup d’etat you’ll be prosecuted and thrown in jail. So much for the Bill of Rights in a post November USA world!
Sep 16
CNN poll shows Biden and Trump tied in a dead heat in battleground states–and the debates haven’t even begun yet! If Dems can’t win this election they should close up shop, dissolve, and disappear!
Sep 16
CNN poll shows election day voting (Biden 22% supporters vote, Trump 66%); voting by mail (Biden 53%, Trump 21%)=Trump appears to win Nov 3 but slowly loses as mail ballots counted. Trump declares fraud. Asks SCOTUS to stop mail ballot counting. Florida 2000 deja vu
Sep 15
200+ electoral college votes in red states where intense gerrymandering & forms of voter suppression have been increasing since 2010 Republican-McConnell Senate takeover. Fed courts in red states upholding it, after fast-tracking of right wing court majorities there
Sep 15
Florida McConnell appointed Appeals Court overturns Florida district court ordering 800,000 former felons be allowed to vote. All this following Florida statewide initiative where two-thirds of Florida voters approved right to vote after having served one’s sentence
Sep 15
Trump says Nov. election won’t be known “for months or for years”. So who’ll decide president during “months…years” Sup. Ct. or Congress? Trump Senate will block Congress; Sup.Ct. as in 2000. Biden says US military will remove him. Pentagon says won’t get involved
Sep 14
Trump Plan A (Focus swing states; ensure red states via voter suppression; foment violence to dampen blue states voter turnout. Plan B (use mail crisis & SCOTUS to stay in power). Plan C:”After we win 4 more years we’ll ask for maybe another 4 or so.”(Trump 9-13-20)
Sep 13
Hitler’s path to power: capture Nazi party & make it his personal vehicle; attack liberal parties & leaders blame them for crisis; encourage his thugs to fight & kill socialists in streets; pull off a quasi-legal coup; then jail & kill all opposed. Parallels today?
Sep 13
Roger Stone, Trump election adviser, convicted & pardoned by Trump, today echoed Trump’s naming protestors “insurrectionists”: said if Trump loses he should seize power and jail Clintons, Zuckerberg, etc. Stone represents wide radical neo-fascist wing of bus. elite?
Sep 12
Red states now control Electoral College. #Electors same as # Congress: 535. Raise #US House members>425. US Const. requires more #House reps as popul rises. Last time done? 1913. No need abolish electoral college. Just increase #House reps to end Red state control
Sep 12
Trump just said in public interview if protests occur on November 4 he’ll consider them “insurrections” (his word) and will put them down with force. As I’ve said, police state USA being planned and prepared for. So what will Biden/Dems do? What Gore, Kerry did. Zip
Sep 8
By my count Trump has 220 electoral votes tied up in red states (where voter suppression also rampant). He needs only 270. There are about 90 votes up for grabs in PA, MI, WI, MN, AZ, NV, VA. (Dems’ only dreaming re. winning FL, TX, NC, GA). Much depends on debates
Sep 8
Trump playing 2016 jobs vs. free trade card in swing states again. Even after phony NAFTA 2.0 deal did nothing to return jobs & while 1,800 factories left USA in 2017-18 alone, per EPI study. But Americans have short memories and tend to believe lying politicians.
Sep 8
National polls Biden/Trump totally irrelevant. Only swing states important. CNN’s latest has Trump even with Biden in 18 battleground states as Trump now promising radical measures again to protect jobs from imports. Resonating again in swing states. And Biden’s?
Sep 2
McConnell-Trump strategy clearly to prevent Dems for taking credit for any stimulus before Nov 3. Create econ chaos & blame Dems: less job benefits & more evictions & small bus. closures. Of 30m US small bus. Homebase small bus. survey shows 20% (600k) now closed.
Sep 2
Watching Biden speak is frustrating. I want to kick him in the pants & shout “Speak up Joe. Show some energy. Get angry. You sound like a local priest giving a sermon.” Someone needs to teach Joe the 6 principles of an effective agitational speech.
Aug 31
You can’t campaign giving speeches from a TV studio! Biden better get out to swing states soon & not pull punches proposing real solutions to working class & small bus. folks who are really hurting. Ah, but the Dems corp. wing won’t let him say what needs to be said
Aug 31
Dems convinced Sanders last spring to throw in the towel, after he’d told supporters he’d fight all the way to the convention; he didn’t. He then told them fight for the platform; they were crushed. You can still hear the air of energy deflating from the Dem balloon
Aug 31
Trump has successfully stolen agenda from Dems, slow & tepid in their response. Covid & economy as issues buried. Trump daily criss-crosses the swing states; Biden still on his butt. Biden incapable of showing energy & fighting spirit people want to see in a crisis
Aug 31
For my Nov. 2018 analysis of US midterm 2018 elections & why Dems ‘suburbia’ strategy will fail in a 2020 general election, read my ‘None Dare Call It Victory’ (11-6) and ‘Democrats Suburbia Strategy Disassembled’ (11-17) at my blog.
Aug 30
Dem strategy in 2018 targeted suburban women & professionals. I warned then it would not work in general election in 2020 if repeated. Biden now losing ground in swing states where more aggressive blue collar prgm needed. Dems no longer know how to speak to them
Aug 30
Anyone think car rallies of Trump supporters popping up in big cities everywhere this weekend is just a coincidental spontaneous event? Who’s behind the coordination? Expect these weekend shows to continue through Nov. As predicted, election now moving to the street
Aug 30
Trump’s just an exaggeration of long time Republican election strategy: run on dual racist-crime theme. Remember 1988? Dukakis way ahead in polls, until infamous ‘Willy Horton’ ad by Bush. (Horton: former black criminal released from prison). Horton now: BLM-Antifa
Aug 29
Biden & Dems who say FBI or military will remove Trump from White House & US House has final say are wrong both accounts. US House decides only if Pres-VP ‘incapacitated’. Vote irregularities go to courts. FBI-military will prevaricate if armed supporters defend WH
Aug 29
Trump’s PLAN B (cont.): 5) get US Sup. Ct to decide vote (keep it out of US House); 6) declare national emergency & refuse to leave White House; 7) call on supporters to Washington to mass counter-demonstrate; 8) have armed members defend White House perimeter;
Aug 29
Trump’s PLAN B: 1) Exacerbate econ & political crises pre 11-3; 2) delegitimize the election process outcome (fraud, stolen, post office, etc); 3) court challenge mail ballots in key blue states pre 11-3; 4) stop or slow vote count in blue states (not red) post 11-3
Aug 28
Trump PLAN A: 1) Punish Blue states economically & politically to reduce turnout 2) Keep Red states safe by voter suppression 3) Campaign in person mostly in 8 swing states 4) Label Biden as Sanders’ puppet 5) Appeal to his white European base fears of the ‘Others’
Aug 27
#RepublicanConvention For Kudlow-Trump prediction of Vshape recovery by November election, given -5% and -31.7% collapse of US GDP in first half 2020 US economy will have to grow by +22% next four months! Haha. Wanna buy a bridge? Kudlow has one to sell if you want to believe him
Aug 27
#RepublicConvention Source of Kudlow’s ‘boom in housing’: 1. pent up demand from spring shelter in place 2. wealthy urban apartment, town-home, condo owners fleeing cities to suburbs/exurbs. Builders rushing to build more houses there. Result: major price deflation in city RE now
Aug 26
#RepublicanConvention Trump claims economy was great until Covid. Yeah? 2019=6 mo. manufacturing recession, 9 mos. contraction of bus. investment, stagnant real wages & doubling of credit card defaults, falling exports due to China trade war. But dividends-buybacks record $1.2T.
Aug 24
Trump has been buying farm sector votes with massive subsidies of taxpayer money. In 2018-19 during China trade war he gave $29B in direct subsidies. In March 2020 Cares Act gave another $19B. Mostly to big agribusiness buddies, not family farmers now going under.
Aug 24
Trump says farmers doing great. But Wall St. Journal headline today declared: ‘US Farmers Are Suffering’ (p. B9): “Bankruptcies are high in farm country” mostly “small family farms” & “Farm loan payments are expected to fall precipitously in the next three months”.
Aug 22
Most conspiracies are purposely create by smart people, with the objective of diverting attention from realities like 80m Americans without affordable health care, 45m still jobless, 10m+ small bus. closing, 20m+ being evicted, millions hungry, 310m dead by Dec.
Aug 22
Being ignorant is excusable; just means someone’s keeping the facts from you. Ditto gullible; means you’re too trusting of answers from those in authority. But stupid? Means one can’t perform simple logical thinking to come to conclusions of their own. (30 million?)
Aug 22
The daddy of all conspiracies now emerging from the right wing blogosphere: ‘The Nov. 3 election will be a catastrophe because an asteroid is coming to earth on that same date’. Def. of conspiracy theory: an easy answer for folks incapable of thinking for themselves
Aug 22
US House to pass $25B for US postal office today. Trump says he’ll veto. McConnell says won’t take it up in Senate. USPS General, DeJoy, tells Congress he’ll restore 600 mail sorters removed from USPS offices. But workers receive letter they can’t restore them
Aug 20
Dems are already trying to lower expectations of stimulus if they win Nov 3. Biden’s transition team head, Kaufman, today says ‘pantry will be bare’ and ‘deficits large’. Dems will be ‘limited’ in what they can do. (Obama 2009 economic ‘minimalism’ all over again).
Aug 20
Both Trump & Biden should chew on this: “Harris Poll conducted days before the convention found that 59% of 18 to 39 year olds said they would rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one, up 9 percentage points since last year”(Fin. Times, Aug.20,p.16)
Aug 18
Dems got Sanders to bail out of race early last spring (after he promised to fight all the way to the convention), then screwed his followers on party platform last week. Dem leaders now clear to trot out Republicans for Biden at convention. ‘Deja vu all over again.
Aug 18
Big reason Hillary lost 2016: failure to campaign in swing states. Nat’l polls irrelevant. Only 8 swing states matter. Trump already campaigning hard there. Will continue. So Where’s Biden-Harris in swing states? Will they campaign there? Or will Dems repeat 2016?
Aug 14
What’s behind Trump’s Israel-UAE agt.? More than meets the eye. As deal was announced, US seized 4 Iran ships on way to Venezuela. IS Israel-UAE part of US plan to prepare region US allies for ‘October Surprise’ re. US policy toward Iran? Is US-Iran conflict coming?
Jul 30
What if 72 hrs before Nov. 3 Trump tells his supporters to not vote & invokes emergency powers act to halt the election? Constitution says he can’t change the date. So what. How will Dems stop him? Trump has Barr, DHS troops + support of most mid-level officer corps
Jul 26
Even if Biden wins 6 key swing states, the electoral college vote will still be close. If close, Trump will cry fraud & refuse to leave, plunging USA into deep Const. Crisis. Why he’ll refuse to leave? If he loses, knows he’ll be indicted on tax fraud and convicted
Jul 19
Trump’s Plan B? Create street chaos as DHS troops provoke fights w. antifa/BLM/protestors; Covid deaths spike & voters stay home; polling stations close w/o older folks to run; challenge & delay mail in ballot count; Trump rejects results 11-4 & asks Sup.Ct. decide
