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Since the start of Mexico's presidential
campaigns, the race has opened up latent but profound fissures
in Mexican society. The present post-electoral conflict not only
hinges on legal issues of how the elections were run. It brings
to the fore deep concerns about transparency, social justice,
and the future course of a nation at a critical juncture in its
fledgling transition to democracy.
The post-electoral conflict
reached a higher pitch this week as round-the-clock encampments
were installed in Mexico City's central square and surrounding
streets. Supporters of center-left presidential candidate Andrés
Manuel López Obrador have vowed to remain in the camps
until the Federal Electoral Court rules for a full recount of
the votes.
Despite the daily downpours
typical of Mexico's rainy season, protesters from all over the
country have set up community kitchens, workshops and classes,
children's activities, and cleaning crews through their own initiative.
Citizens have organized to deliver food, blankets, and shelter
to the protesters. The encampments have predictably caused major
traffic problems in the city and elicited irate comments from
downtown businesses.
They could be in for a long
haul. The Federal Court has until the end of the month of August
to decide on a legal course of action to resolve the controversy.
But those calling for a "ballot
by ballot, polling place by polling place" recount demonstrated
their determination and endurance on July 31 when some two million
people waited for hours packed in the plaza to hear López
Obrador speak at the third "informative assembly."
When people visibly affected by the heat of the midday sun began
to leave the plaza before López Obrador arrived, others
urged them "not to cave in" and offered water. For
many it's a matter of pride-both to defend the candidate they
believe really won the elections and to resist what they view
as another attempt by the rich and powerful to cheat them out
of their just dues.
Meanwhile, pressures from the
conservative wing to declare Felipe Calderón president-elect
have also intensified, but through very different tactics. Calderón's
National Action Party (PAN) has been meeting with editorial boards
of major foreign media and mobilizing groups of some of the nation's
most powerful businessmen. Calderón told a group of foreign
correspondents that he will not go head-to-head with López
Obrador in the streets since his opponent has a distinct advantage
in mobilizing masses, but instead will defend his election through
other means. The PAN plans to publicly present tally sheets and
Calderón continues to announce policy decisions among
specific sectors as if he were already the president-elect.
It's no coincidence that the
López Obrador supporters are in the streets and the effort
to declare Calderón president is being orchestrated in
corporate boardrooms and editorial meetings with Mexico's media
monopolies and foreign press.
The built-up resentment of
the poor has found expression in the López Obrador campaign.
The PRD leader uses language that reclaims social and economic
rights enshrined in the Mexican Constitution, and backs policies
that reflect an active obligation of the government to level
some of the disparities in wealth and power that have grown under
the free-market model.
The PAN, true to the model,
has governed under the assumption that what's good for business
is good for the country. For those who have waited decades for
this model to produce tangible benefits to the most disadvantaged
sectors of society, the hypothesis is no longer tenable. They
believe, with much justification, that society owes them more,
and that the windfalls of the wealthy have been at their expense.
The legal process to declare
the winner of the race has just begun. The Federal Electoral
Court recently agreed on implementing a "special procedure"
to review the evidence presented to demand a general recount.
It can then either declare a full recount or a partial recount
of votes in specific polling places. The greatest number of demands
for review and documentation of anomalies pertain to districts
where the PAN candidate won with ample margins.
Legal experts have been debating
the various ins and outs of the options before the court, generally
opining in ways that reflect their political orientation more
than by-the-letter interpretation of the laws. The reality is
that the laws are relatively new, and few precedents have been
set. The tribunal's seven judges, therefore, have considerable
leeway to interpret the law and determine procedures as they
see fit in what is by far their most important case to date.
López Obrador has repeatedly
stated his commitment to respect the results of a full recount.
Calderón has waffled on the issue of a recount, at times
calling it an illegal and unnecessary measure and at others acceding
to the possibility of a partial recount.
With so much at stake in terms
of social stability and transparency, the prudent course is to
choose the most comprehensive solution possible. This is a full
recount. Dispelling doubts in the electoral process not only
grants the new president-whoever he is-greater legitimacy, it
also restores confidence in institutions.
The solution to the controversy
now lies in the hands of the electoral court. But the challenge
to attain transparent and credible election results and, even
more importantly, to chart a course toward durable social justice
is a challenge facing all of Mexican society.
Popular movements around the
world often use nonviolent civil disobedience to break impasses
at critical moments of transition. Mexico today faces such a
critical moment. Manipulated elections held under the one-party
rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party are still well
remembered and many fear a return to the past if this election
is not cleared up. The encampments intensify the confrontation
that has been taking place since the July 2 elections. A decision
for a full recount would provide an institutional solution to
the stand-off and allow the nation to get on with the larger
task of overcoming the divisions to build a more just society.
Laura Carlsen directs IRC's Americas Program, www.americaspolicy.org,
from Mexico City, where she has worked as a political analyst
for two decades.
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