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What Israel and the U.S.
Wanted May Not Be At All What They Get
By NADIA HIJAB
Before July 12, in the six years since
Israel withdrew unilaterally from southern Lebanon, there were
rare border skirmishes as well as a tacit understanding not to
fire on civilians. According to UN forces, Israel violated the
blue line 10 times more often than Hizballah. Both sides kidnapped
civilians and negotiated a prisoner exchange in 2004.
In the six weeks since Israel
responded with disproportionate force to the Hizballah capture
of two soldiers--a purely military target--on July 12 to force
a prisoner exchange, it has killed at least 900 Lebanese civilians,
wounded more than 3,000, displaced up to a million, and destroyed
much of the civilian infrastructure, including 95 per cent of
bridges and 80 per cent of primary roads.
Hizballah has responded by
firing some 2,000 rockets into Israel, killing at least 18 Israeli
civilians; in the fighting, it has killed at least 36 soldiers
and wounded 88. While the crisis in Gaza has been virtually ignored
by the media since July 12, it is unabated. In Israel's response
to the Hamas capture of an Israeli soldier on June 25 more than
160 Palestinians 78 per cent of them civilians--have been
killed and Gaza's already ravaged civilian infrastructure further
degraded.
The US insistence on reaching
a political settlement before a cease-fire in Lebanon was widely
interpreted as giving Israel a green light to continue its offensive
until it crushes Hizballah. However, as Hizballah fought back,
Israel appeared to reduce its objectives. Any multinational
force to secure the cease-fire will have to be negotiated with
the Lebanese government, including Hizballah, which is firmly
rooted in some 40% of the population. Thus, a conflagration that
has cost untold human misery may not lead to a fundamental change
to the status quo until the "root causes" are addressed.
Root Causes:
Whose Definition Will Prevail?
Throughout this period, the
US administration has zeroed in on Hizballah, Syria, Iran, and
terrorism as the root cause of the conflict. It has demanded
the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 of
2004 providing for "disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese
and non-Lebanese militias."
This narrow US definition of
the causes of conflict ignores the main motivation of Hizballah
and the Palestinian fighters: the release of some 10,000 prisoners
from Israeli jails.
It also ignores the fact that
the majority of the protagonists in the Arab-Israeli conflict
define the root cause very differently: as Israel's 39-year occupation
of the Palestinian West Bank and East Jerusalem and the Syrian
Golan Heights. Arabs (and most of the world) demand the implementation
of UN Security Council 242 of 1967 whose basic premise is the
"inadmissibility of the acquisition of territory by war."
They also call for the Palestinian refugees right of return as
upheld by UN Resolution 181. They believe the Bush administration
is endorsing Israel's attempt to settle the conflict on its own
terms.
Since Israel secured peace
agreements with Egypt in 1980 and Jordan in 1994, it has attempted
to impose a unilateral solution on the Palestinian, Lebanese,
and Syrian fronts, beginning with former Israeli Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. At present, Israel
believes it has a green light from Bush, set out in his April
2004 exchange of letters with Sharon, to keep large settlement
blocs on Palestinian land, reject the Palestinian right of return,
and cement Israel's identify as a Jewish state.
In this context, the disproportionate
nature of Israel's response in Gaza and Lebanon can be seen not
just as Israel's way of demonstrating its military might for
deterrence purposes, but also as a way of extinguishing the last
two sources of any significant resistance--Hizballah and Hamas--to
its unilateral plans. However, the limits of applying military
power to settle political conflicts are becoming apparent. The
drawn-out nature of the fighting in Lebanon due to Hizballah's
resistance as well as the horrific cost in civilian casualties
has ratcheted up world pressure for an immediate cease-fire.
Moreover, there are two areas
in which the US and Israeli interests diverge. As former assistant
Secretary of State Richard Murphy pointed out pointed out to
us. "In Lebanon, the US doesn't want to see another failed
state. The US experience with failed states is horrible. And
Washington has to pay attention to what Sistani says."
Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, whose tacit support of the
US presence makes him a vital ally, declared the Muslim world
would not forgive those who prevented a cease-fire in Lebanon.
(See his July 30 statement, http://www.sistani.org/messages/ghanaa.htm)
The US, not Israel, has to deal with any fallout from Lebanon
in Iraq.
If the US administration really
wants a sustainable solution in Lebanon, it will have to acknowledge
the links to Syria's determination to restore the Golan, the
Palestinian struggle for self-determination, and Lebanese demands
that Israel respect its sovereignty. Bush may find himself having
to implement the second paragraph of the July 16 G-8 statement
issued at St. Petersburg: "The root cause of the problems
in the region is the absence of a comprehensive Middle East peace."
A comprehensive settlement will need meaningful negotiations,
which would mean an end to unilateralism.
Nadia Hijab is a senior fellow of the Institute
for Palestine Studies. She can be reached at fips@mail.democracyinaction.org
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Against Israel
By Michael Neumann
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