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"Imperial Crusades: a Diary of Three Wars" by Cockburn and St. Clair

Today's Stories

April 27, 2007

Eva Liddell
How Can Women Defend Themselves Against Stalkers?

April 26, 2007

Andrew Cockburn
Wolfowitz's War

Franklin Lamb
Giuliani Plays the Islamic Terror Card

Patrick Cockburn
Al-Qa'ida Group Behind US Deaths in Iraq

Roger Morris
Dispatches From the Front

Henry Siegman
The Three Nos of Jerusalem

Alevtina Rea
A Sister City Debate in Rachel Corrie's Hometown

Paris
Are You a Hip Hop Apologist?

Nikolas Kozloff
White Racism and the Aymara in Bolivia

Alan Farago
Dow 13,000 Disconnect

Matthew S. Miller
The Limits to Lakoff

Website of the Day
PBS: Blaming Blacks Again


April 25, 2007

Sharon Smith
The Rights of Children in America

David Price
The Long Lost War

Diana Johnstone
Who Wants Sarko? New or Old France?

Brendan Cooney
Cho and Cheney: Killer Looks

Sonja Karkar
Israeli Democracy, For Jews Only?

Brian Concannon
Wolfowitz and Haiti

Lee Gaillard
Baptism Under Fire: Can the Osprey Fly?

Leah Fishbein
Women Under Siege

Dave Lindorff
The First Shoe Drops

Neal Galloway
US Agricultural Policy is Destructive at Home and Abroad

Website of the Day
Anti-War Student Movements: a Short History

 

April 24, 2007

Ishmael Reed
How Imus' Media Collaborators Almost Rescued Their Chief

Lila Rajiva
Tragedy and Irony After Virginia Tech

Paul Craig Roberts
The War Goes Ever On

Patrick Cockburn
Sunnis Protest Baghdad's "Prison Wall"

Ralph Nader
The Corporate Debasement of Earth Day

Mike Whitney
Housing Bubble Boondoggle

Website of the Day
"Refugees"

 

April 23, 2007

Saul Landau
The Courage to Withdraw

Patrick Cockburn
Time of the Death Squads: Iraq as Revenge Tragedy

Robert Fantina
Changing Sentiments

Sam Husseini
The Gonzales Distraction

Corporate Crime Reporter
Bought-and-Paid-For Journalism at the Philly Inquirer

Elizabeth Lalasz
Sick and Getting Sicker

Harvey Wasserman
Earth Day, Incorporated

Dave Lindorff
Huge Win for Impeachment in Vermont: Are You Listening Sen. Leahy?

Gary Leupp
Maoist Homophobia in Nepal?

Stephen Lendman
A Short History of the Christian Right

Website of the Day
No to OLF


April 21 / 22, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Bring Back the Posse

Fred Gardner
Prozac Madness

Kristoffer Larsson
The Islamic Threat to Europe: By the Numbers

Barbara Rose Johnston
Nuclear War and Its Consequences

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
The Heart of Whiteness: Racism, Wealth and IQ

John Scagliotti
Unlocking Closets, Locking Free Speech

Marjorie Cohn
Gonzo Justice: Counting on Alberto

Patrick Cockburn
Sadr Raises the Stakes

Diana Johnstone
The Absent Middle East

Ron Jacobs
Explaining the Spectre

Evelyn Pringle
How Iraq Was Looted

BANCO
Travesties of Justice in a Black City in Michigan: the Persecution of Rev. Pinkney

Paul Richards
Thinking Big in the Northern Rockies

Dan Bacher
Zapatistas in the Colorado River Delta

Ben Terrall
Showdown at Chevron: SF Protest Against New Iraq Oil Law

Sherwood Ross
How the Taliban Defeated the Pakistani Army in Waziristan

Remi Kanazi
Bill Maher's "Towel-Headed Hos"

Aseem Shrivastava
Behind the Curtain of SEZs

Poets' Basement
Valentine, Reed, Harley and Engel

Website of the Day
Reading Sappho in New Orleans

 

April 20, 2007

Doug Peacock
Beginning of the End for the Yellowstone Grizzly?

Diane Farsetta
Onward, Free Market Soldiers!: Privatizing Public Diplomacy

Tom Clifford
The Surge in Iraqi Civilian Deaths: the Bloodiest 12 Months of the War

Amira Hass
The Holocaust as Political Asset

Nicole Colson
Desperation in Gitmo's Camp 6

Sonja Karkar
Double Jeopardy Entraps Palestinians

Heather Gray
The Supreme Court Looks a Lot Like the Taliban

Dr. Bouthaina Shaaban
Syrian Expeditions

Agustin Velloso
Spain and Iraq, Four Years On

Matthew Koehler
Distorting the News in a Timber Company Town

Website of the Day
Gonzo's Monica

 

April 19, 2007

Emad Mekay /
Jim Lobe
Scoring at the World Bank: Wolfowitz's Quid Pro Quo

Patrick Cockburn
A Day of Bombs and Blood in Baghdad

Larry C. Johnson
The Hobbesian Hell of Iraq: How Many Dead Equal a Failed Government?

Norman Solomon
Bowing Down to Our Own Violence

Saul Williams
Notes from a Hip Hop Head: an Open Letter to Oprah Winfrey

Sunsara Taylor
From Iraq to the Supreme Court: a New Dark Ages for Women

Harvey Wasserman
How Green is Tom Friedman?

Christopher Brauchli
Apologies, Incorporated

Anthony Papa
Nightmare Behind Bars: John Valverde's Fight for Freedom

Dave Lindorff
Betraying Thomas Jefferson

Website of the Day
The Best Antiwar Song of the Iraq War?


April 18, 2007

Lila Rajiva
More Gun Laws or Fewer Idiots? How the Va Tech Administration Failed Its Campus

Landau / Hassen
Tancredo as 17th Century Indian Chief?

Charles Fisher /
Randy Fisher

Don Imus's Firing and the Hip-Hop Culture

Diane Christian
Facing Death Politically

Kevin Prosen
Meeting the Resistance in Iraq

China Hand
Gold Digging: The U.S. Treasury Department's Economic Campaign Against North Korea

Peter Rost, MD
The Strange Profits from a Re-Branded Cancer Drug

Justin Akers Chacón
What's Inside the STRIVE Bill

Jerry Kroth
Virginia Tech and Cho Seung Hui: Love and Unhappiness in an Alien Culture

Sherwood Ross
Massacre at Va Tech: a Brief Glimpse into Daily Life in Iraq

Niranjan Ramakrishnan
The Bonfire of the Hannities

Alice Cherbonnier
Why South Dakota's "Informed Consent" Law Doesn't Go Far Enough

Website of the Year?
"I Hope I Die Before I Get Old"

 

April 17, 2007

Jean Bricmont /
Diana Johnstone
The Elections in France: a Coming Political Tsunami

Paul Craig Roberts
Bloodbath in Blacksburg

Frida Berrigan
Militarizing the Border

Alison Weir
The Message of PBS's "Crossroads" Series: Some Muslims Aren't Bad

John Walsh
Why is the Peace Movement Silent About AIPAC?

Jason Hribal
Resistance is Futile: Emily the Cow and Tyke the Elephant

Evelyn Pringle
The Iraq Money Trail

Ben Terrall
Cuban Exiles Get Hero's Welcome; Haitian Refugees Get Shafted

Stan Cox
1040s and Death Certificates

Soren Ambrose
Confidence Crisis at the IMF

Website of the Day
Go Ahead and Yell: "FIRE!"

 

April 16, 2007

John F. Sugg
Hate and Hypocrisy in the Cox Empire

Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
Escalating Military Spending: Income Redistribution in Disguise

Carl G. Estabrook
The Politics of the Useful Threat: It Didn't Start with the Neo-Cons

Paul Craig Roberts
The Party of Brownshirts

Uri Avnery
Blood on Our Hands

Ralph Nader
Where Are the Cries of Outrage Over Military Rapes?

Eamon McCann
Shame of the Empire: Simon, Sir Bono and Tinkerbelle

Lee Sustar
Decoding the Democrats

Mike Whitney
Trouble in Squanderville: Bubble People and the Faith-Based Market

Don Fitz
Solar Capitalism?

Stephen Lendman
Ecuador Votes for Revolutionary Change

Website of the Day
Black Mesa Water Coalition

 

April 14 / 15, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Ho Industry Whores

Jorge Mariscal
Gen. Petraeus's Field Manual: a Traveler's Guide to Big Muddy

Jeffrey St. Clair
The Beautiful and the Dammed: How the West Got Flooded

Dave Marsh
The Imus Affair, Hip Hop and Politics

Dr. Trudy Bond
Shrinks, Lies and Torture: How Psychologists Became the Pentagon's Bitches

Joe Bageant
A Feral Dog Howls in Harvard Yard

Fidel Castro
The Terrorist Walks

Alfredo Molano
"More Than Complicated"

Alan Farago
When Miami Crashes

Michael Neumann
Anglophone Fantasies and French Realities

Fred Gardner
Barbara McNair's Unsung Heroism: Bringing Down the Owner of EST

Ron Jacobs
A Conversation with Three Iraq Veterans Against the War

Gail Dines
Racy Sex, Sexy Racism

Linda Ford
Imus and Lady Hoopsters: a Long History of Bias Against Women Athletes

Missy Beattie
What Would Imus Do?: Iraq, Ho, Ho, Ho

Dan La Botz
Farm Labor Organizer Murdered in Mexico

Giuliana Sgrena
The Lies of Mario Lozano

Laura Carlsen
A Moratorium on Free Trade Agreements

Abu Spinoza
Wolfowitz's Real Crimes

Elizabeth Schulte
Grinding It Out with Quentin Tarantino

Poets' Basement
Davies, Harley, Engel and Landau

Website of the Weekend
Vonnegut's Final Interview

 

April 13, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
The Shattering of Mosul

Stephen Soldz
Aid and Comfort for Torturers: Psychology and Coercive Interrogations in Historical Perspective

George Ciccarriello-Maher
The Failed Chávez Coup: Five Years On

Laith al-Saud
Kirkuk, Oil and the Kurds

Dave Zirin
Memo to Imus

John Ross
Drawing a Line in the Heartland

Ramzy Baroud
America as Proxy

Harvey Wasserman
The Novelist Who Hated War: Peace Be With You, Mr. Vonnegut

Lopez, Olivo and Garcia
Columbia University's Two-Tiered Punishments

Dols, Fukumori, Judd and Tillett-Saks
Columbia: On the Wrong Side of Justice

Website of the Day
Democrats: an Iraq Scorecard

 

April 12, 2007

JoAnn Wypijewski
We May be Rid of Imus, But We're Still Stuck with the Culture

Paul Craig Roberts
Big Profits from Big Brother

Marjorie Cohn
U.S. Attorneys and Voting Rights

Evelyn Pringle
Bush Family War Profiteering: Will Congress Finally Cut Them Off?

Ron Jacobs
God Bless You, Mr. Vonnegut

Norman Solomon
The Awful Truth About Hillary, Barack and John

Joe DeRaymond
The Release of Dennis Counterman: The Justice Game, the Alford Plea and Death Row

Nicola Nasser
Squeezing Palestinians into an Impossible Mission

Nikolas Kozloff
Chile, a Country Geographically Located in South America "By Accident"

William S. Lind
Horatio Hornblower's Worst Nightmare

Siegfried L. Sassoon
A Statement Against the Continuation of the War

Website of the Day
Where You Want This Killin' Done?

 


April 11, 2007

R. T. Naylor
Quebec's Lessons for the US: How "Wars on Terror" Should be Fought

Vijay Prashad
The Generation of IEDs and iPods

Patrick Cockburn
The Myth of Tal Afar

Winslow T. Wheeler
When Will the War Money Really Run Out?

Jack Balkwill
Prison for a Peacemaker: A Vietnam Vet Interviews Kathy Kelly

Alan Farago
Florida's Fundamentally Weak Environmental Movement

Russell D. Hoffman
The Carbon Offset Tax is Just Another Nuke Bailout

Peter Rost, MD
The Fine Print on Drug Industry Kickbacks

Mike Whitney
Doomsday for the Greenback?

Dave Lindorff
Torture and Selective Outrage

Susie Day
Peter Pace Porks a Peck of Pinko Perverts

Website of the Day
Save the Internet!

 

April 10, 2007

James G. Abourezk
How Syria Helped the US in the "War on Terror"-and How Bush Said "Thanks"

Earl Ofari Hutchinson
Why Imus Should be Fired-And Why He Won't Be

Joshua Frank
Democrats for War

Lee Sustar
How Concessions by UAW Lost Jobs

Joseph Grosso
Tiger Woods in Dubai: Luxury and Exploitation

Nirmal Ghosh
China and the Fate of the Tiger

Robert Jensen
Impeach the System

Ramzy Baroud
Not an Intellectual Squabble

Paul Rockwell
History Will Vindicate Lt. Ehren Watada

Mario Joseph and
Brian Concannon

Solidaridad? Chávez in Haiti

Fred Wilhelms
Why the New Royalty Rates Hurt Artists

Website of the Day
Thaw!

 

April 9, 2007

Saul Landau
Whining Imperialists

Uri Avnery
Shalom, Shin Bet

Nicole Colson
Sami Al-Arian's Nightmare: an Interview with Nahla Al-Arian

Gideon Levy
Israel Does Not Want Peace

Corporate Crime Reporter
Big Coal Invokes Reverse Nuremberg Defense

Evelyn Pringle
The Surge in Casualties

Hill Kemp
Mega Lessons from Iraq War, Year 5

Martha Rosenberg
Monsanto's Desperate Plea: "Regulate Our Competitors!"

Keith Rosenthal
Behind Boston's Recent "Crime Wave"

Jane Stillwater
Green Zone Cabin Fever

Website of the Day
Support Norman Finkelstein


April 7 / 8, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Dead Dogs Don't Bleed: How Giuliani Lost America

Sara Roy
A Jewish Plea

Arno J. Mayer
Back to Cleopatra's Nose: Bush-Bashing and Empire's Onward March

Jeffrey St. Clair
In the Realm of the Grizzly Kings

Vicente Navarro
Why Huntington and Beck Are Wrong

Fidel Castro
Where Have All the Bees Gone? And Other Reflections on the Internationalizaton of Genocide

Fred Gardner
Medical News from the Business Pages

Ralph Nader
The IRS Owes You Money

David N. Rahni
Test Tube Zealots: American Chemical Society Purges Iranian Chemists

Arthur Neslen
When an Anti-Semite is Not an Anti-Semite

Pratyush Chandra
Joseph Stiglitz's "Another World"

Missy Beattie
Enough Already! The Politics of Exasperation

Marc Levy
A Beginner's Guide to Combat

Poets' Basement
Reiss, Holt, Orloski and Louise

Website of the Weekend
Reactor Man

 

April 6, 2007

Franklin Lamb
Why is Hezbollah on the Terrorism List?

Gloria La Riva
On the Case of the Cuban Five and Luis Posada Carriles

Corporate Crime Reporter
The Politics of Coal in West Virginia

Ron Jacobs
Good Friday, Beethoven and Patti Smith

Felice Pace
Simon Says: The Pro-Israel Bias of NPR

Walter Brasch
Treason in the White House?

David Swanson
Heroes, Sung and Unsung

Sylvia Syracuse
Roadside Rampage: Salvadoran Murders in Guatemala


April 5, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
A De Facto Hostage Exchange

Tom Barry
The Fred Thompson Factor

Richard W. Behan
Congressional Complicity

Nicola Nasser
Playing US Politics with Iraqi Blood for Oil

Bernadine Dohrn
The New and Old SDS: Convergence Not Division

Laray Polk
Lucky Dragon: Does the World Really Need a New H-Bomb?

Helen Redmond
Female Chauvinist Pigs?

 

April 4, 2007

Col. Dan Smith
"Have You No Sense of Decency?": the Tillman Affair and the Moral Decay of the Army

Joshua Frank
Democratic Blood Money: Sen. Feinstein's War Profiteering

Margaret Kimberly
Of Confessions and Torture

Sharon Smith
Circuit City's Guinea Pigs: the Latest Trend in Corporate America

Jeff Cohen and Norman Solomon
The Martin Luther King You Don't See on TV

Martin Luther King,Jr.
Beyond Vietnam

Bill Quigley
Incident at Fort Huachuca, the Army's Torture Training Center

Dave Zirin
Picking Chicago's Pockets with the Olympics

Evelyn Pringle
Drug Companies Want Women of Childrearing Years

Peter Rost, MD
Pfizer's Puny Fine

Website of the Day
Crash of the Honey Bees

 

April 3, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
US's Bungled Plan to Kidnap Iran's Top Spook Prompted hostage Taking

Marjorie Cohn
Coming Up Short on Habeas Corpus for Gitmo Detainees

Brian M. Downing
The Army's Road to Iraq

Corporate Crime Reporter
Coddling Pfizer: Praise the Criminal, Dis the Whistleblower

Carol Norris
A Psychologist on Sexual Assault: Yes, Virginia, There is a Sollution

Ralph Nader
Tailpipe Blues

Dave Lindorff
I Quit: A Movement of One (Or a Maybe a Million)

Scott Bontz
The Great Depletion

Thomas Dolby
Stevie Wonder, Marvin Gaye, Racism and the National Anthem

Website of the Day
Cockburn on BookTV


April 2, 2007

Gary Leupp
A Bogus Hostage Crisis

Uri Avnery
Condi in the Middle East: Olmert and the Pussycat

James Petras
Palestine: The Political Economy of a Disaster

Norman Solomon
McCain in Baghdad: Walking in McNamara's Footsteps

Robert Fisk
War of Humiliation

Stanley Heller
A Neocon Looks Two Conquests Ahead: The Ravings of James Woolsey

Sherwood Ross
How the Pentagon Cheats Iraq Vets Out of Medical Care and Disability Pay

Monica Benderman
On Keeping Men Alive: Report from Ft. Stewart

Stephen Fleischman
Winners and Losers in a Dog-Eat-Dog System

Anne McElroy Dachel
Never Mind the Mercury

Website of the Day
Midwestern Common Sense on the War


March 31 / April 1, 2007

Cockburn / St. Clair
That Was an Antiwar Vote?

Fred Gardner
How Corrupt is Malcolm Gladwell? Shilling for Enron and Breast Cancer

Greg Moses
The Pirates of Homeland Security

Gary Leupp
300 vs. Iran (and Herodotus)

Robert Fisk
Shakespeare and War

Roger Morris
The Politics of the Witch Hunt

Conn Hallinan
The Price of Fire: Oil, Water and Resistance in Bolivia

Kristin J. Anderson
A Protocol for Death

Jason Hribal
California's Most Unhappy Cows

John Ross
Strange Fruit Down South

Christopher Brauchli
Bush and the Politics of Falsehoods: If You're Going to Lie, Lie Big

David Underhill
War Breeds Stranger Bedfellows

Elizabeth Schulte
The Pentagon's "Don't Ask" Disaster

Ben Terrall
Time for Lula to Stop Doing Bush's Dirty Work in Haiti

Missy Beattie
Guess Who Isn't Coming to Dinner: The Story of King Abdullah and the O-Word

Sonja Karkar
How Palestine Became Israel's Land

Daniel Wolff
Have You Heard the News?

David Vest
A Romanian Jazz Rebel Drops a Bomb on Paris

Ron Jacobs
Wynton Marsalis Checks In on the Land That Never Has Been Yet

Poets' Basement
Davies, Holt, Wigley and Landau

Website of the Weekend
Kansas City Rocks

 

 

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April 27, 2007

Stalemate in the Desert

Western Sahara: Against Autonomy

By JACOB MUNDY

In recent years, the Moroccan government has championed the idea of autonomy as a solution to its territorial dispute with pro-independence advocates over Western Sahara. Rabat has said it is willing to consider an autonomous, locally elected government in Western Sahara, which would have powers independent of the central government, albeit circumscribed by Morocco's ultimate sovereignty. The movement for Western Saharan statehood, on the other hand, has rejected autonomy. It continues to claim the right of self-determination, to be exercised through a final status referendum among the territory's indigenous ethnic Sahrawis.

There is a broad international consensus, political and juridical, backing the right of self-determination in former European colonies. This consensus was applied most recently in East Timor. Western Sahara, like East Timor, was a European colony until the mid-1970s. In a landmark 1975 ruling, the International Court of Justice dismissed Morocco's historical claims to Western Sahara and instead supported the Sahrawis' right to self-determination. The UN Security Council and Secretary General have both reiterated their support for a solution that provides for self-determination, which would entail a vote including, but not limited to, the option of independence.

From 1988 to 1999, the Security Council attempted to hold a vote on self-determination in Western Sahara. Then, in 2000, the discourses started shifting away from self-determination to a "third way" that was neither independence nor integration with Morocco. Autonomy has become that "third way" solution, and it seems like the best compromise on paper. Yet, when mapped onto the realities of the conflict, autonomy becomes a recipe for disaster -- both at the negotiating table and on the ground in Western Sahara.

Though the Ford, Carter, and Reagan administrations had provided material support for Morocco's invasion and occupation of Western Sahara from 1975 to 1991, the first Bush and Clinton administrations maintained a hands-off policy toward the early UN referendum process (1992-1996). Indirect, high-level U.S. involvement -- in the form of former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker -- began in 1997. However, Baker's seven-year engagement was sabotaged, on the U.S. side, by larger geo-strategic concerns: Morocco's role as an ally in -- and after May 2003 a site of -- the war on terror. The U.S. government's attitude toward the conflict since then has been to leave it to the parties to make their own proposals while discretely encouraging autonomy.


Stalemate

The stalemate in Western Sahara was originally achieved on the battlefield during a 16-year war pitting Western-supported Morocco against the Algerian-backed Sahrawi guerrillas of the Polisario Front. The armed conflict ended in 1991 when the Security Council backed an agreement to hold a referendum on independence, but only with the consent of the two parties, most importantly Morocco. Several hundred UN peacekeepers began monitoring the ceasefire in 1991. Five years later, and no closer to a vote, the UN seriously considered a withdrawal. Then, in 1997, former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker agreed to mediate the dispute.

During his seven-year tenure as the UN Secretary General's personal envoy to Western Sahara, Baker was the center of gravity in the peace process. He originally brokered a series of agreements that revived the referendum process in 1997. However, when it was time to hold a vote in 2000, the Security Council decided that a referendum was no longer realistic. Behind the scenes, the Clinton administration also backed away from a referendum and instead supported the new regime in Morocco under King Mohammed VI. To avoid the kind of dangerous referendum the Security Council had botched in East Timor, Baker started searching for an alternative to an independence/integration referendum. However, in 2002, the UN Security Council said that it would consider any peace proposal so long as it provided for self-determination (i.e., a referendum on independence).

In 2003, Baker presented his final proposal. The idea was to grant Western Sahara four years of autonomy as a kind of trial period and then hold a final status referendum. The choices would be autonomy, integration with Morocco, or full independence. To sweeten the deal for Rabat, Baker proposed that non-Sahrawi Moroccan settlers could participate in the vote. With Moroccan colonists outnumbering the native Sahrawi population by as much as two-to-one, it came as quite a shock that Rabat rejected the proposal as soon as Polisario accepted it. Baker worked with Morocco for another year, but all of Rabat's counter-proposals demonstrated a deep unwillingness to compromise on the most fundamental issue, the right of self-determination.

For the George W. Bush administration, Morocco's role in the "war on terror" was more important than supporting Baker in Western Sahara. The same month Baker resigned, Morocco won major non-NATO ally status and a free trade agreement from Washington. Elliott Abrams, head of Middle Eastern affairs in the National Security Council, is most likely the lead cheerleader in the White House for Western Saharan autonomy. Indeed, Moroccan expectations that the United States would support a unilaterally implemented autonomy had echoes of U.S. support for Israeli unilateralism in the occupied Palestinian territories.


Sharing the Land

In Western Sahara, total victory is impossible and total defeat is unthinkable for the Moroccan government and the Polisario Front. In such a situation, both sides should, if they are self-interested rational actors, search for a middle-of-the-road solution. The two obvious compromise options for Western Sahara are either sharing the territory or splitting it up. Both sides, however, have rejected the latter. Besides setting an ugly precedent for the international community, a mini-Saharan state would be severely disadvantaged in terms of its viability, which is in no one's interests.

Sharing the territory involves roughly four choices:

* giving Western Sahara special regional status within Morocco though without governmental autonomy;

* transforming Morocco into a symmetrical federalist state so that each region, including Western Sahara, has its own elected government that can not be dissolved by Rabat;

* granting Western Sahara special governmental autonomy within Morocco;

* confederating an independent or quasi-independent Western Sahara with Morocco.

The first approach, regionalism, calls for little compromise on the part of Morocco and a massive concession from Polisario, and so is unlikely to be taken seriously by the latter. The second approach, federalism, has some sympathy in Morocco, but it requires a massive and messy overhaul of Morocco's state structures through a new constitution, effectively involving the entire Moroccan population in the peace process. Federalism also does not recognize the special status of Western Sahara, so it is seriously deficient as a peacemaking tool. A confederation between an independent Western Sahara and Morocco is another option, but Rabat is unlikely to consider such a serious challenge to its "territorial integrity."

Thus the third option, autonomy, wins by default. A peace agreement between Morocco and Polisario could allow for the creation of a quasi-independent Western Sahara with its own locally elected government and internal responsibilities. Both Morocco and Western Sahara would have to share security duties, with Morocco likely retaining military duties and the foreign relations portfolio.


Unripe for Compromise

On paper, autonomy seems like the ideal solution. The problem, however, is just that: it is ideal, not real. Autonomy might be viable under a situation corresponding to a prisoners' dilemma, wherein mutual cooperation produces a positive sum outcome rather than the zero-sum outcome of competition. Yet an honest appraisal of the situation in Western Sahara reveals that the parties' thinking is still war-like; neither Morocco nor Polisario yet believes that total victory is impossible. While there are "hurting" aspects to the stalemate for both sides, the "pain" isn't enough to alter either's fundamental objectives. Morocco's control of the territory is incomplete and lacking in international legitimacy, but its control is enough that the administration is routine and the prospect of being militarily dislodged appears slim.

While Morocco's offer of autonomy might seem like a compromise, the autonomy it put on the table this month is far less than Baker offered in 2001 and 2003. Despite their glowing statements of support, some U.S., UN, and even French officials off the record are very disappointed that Morocco's idea of a concession is still very limited. Rabat's support for autonomy is, for now, merely rhetorical, a tactical concession made to regain the moral high ground after rejecting the Baker Plan -- and Baker -- in 2004.

Polisario, as well, is acting as if time is on its side, even though it also faces problems. Polisario exists in exile, its arms are deteriorating, and there are generational tensions. A recent poll of youth in the Western Saharan refugee camps in southwest Algeria -- home of Polisario's popular base of support -- suggests that young Sahrawis are increasingly frustrated with the limits of camp life. Polisario also has to contend with the constant and growing calls for a return to arms against Morocco. These internal tensions may well come to a head at the movement's upcoming triennial congress.

Meanwhile within Western Sahara, nationalism has exploded rather than receded in recent years. Growing in militancy, the Western Saharan independence movement has spawned its own intifadah, a decentralized, youth-led, anti-Moroccan protest movement in the occupied region. The Sahrawi heroes of this struggle are former political prisoners who have become unashamed nationalists. Many Sahrawis living under Moroccan administration are no longer afraid to speak their mind about the Moroccan occupation, for which they suffer regular beatings and imprisonment. The flag of Polisario, once unseen in Moroccan-controlled areas, is now a ubiquitous symbol of Sahrawi resistance. The only internal feedback that Polisario's leaders are receiving is toward greater confrontation not compromise.

Additionally, support for independence from Algeria's executive is at nearly unprecedented levels. As post-conflict Algeria gains in international status and regional power, literally fuelled by soaring hydrocarbon sales, Polisario is more and more confident that it has sided with North Africa's emerging hegemon. Furthermore, Polisario has interpreted Morocco's offer of autonomy not as a peace gesture but as the desperate gesticulations of an occupier slowly losing its grip.


Challenge of Negotiations

Western Sahara is experiencing a long, drawn-out diplomatic war of attrition. Indeed, the peace process has significantly deteriorated in the past two years. Negotiations, or even the admitted existence of some kind of first-track initiative, would constitute a breakthrough at this point. Neither side has been willing to talk, even under the most non-committal and secretive situation. The fundamental attitudes of the parties reflect Foucault's inversion of Clausewitz: both still see politics as war by other means.

The current standoff in negotiations involves a reluctance to lose face in order to gain through compromise. Polisario wants Morocco to accept the principles of the 2003 Baker Plan -- including a referendum on independence -- before negotiations can start. Morocco claims it is willing to enter into negotiations without preconditions, yet Rabat will not discuss a referendum on independence. So, from Polisario's point of view, Morocco's negotiations "without preconditions" still entail an implicit precondition: Polisario must take self-determination off the table. According to the history and realities on the ground, then the likelihood of either side making a fundamental concession -- just to get talks started -- is nil.

The clear subtext to the current UN thinking on Western Sahara is to get Polisario to abandon a vote on independence. This is technically impossible under international law, as only the Western Saharans can, through a referendum, give up their right to self-determination. But former Secretary General Kofi Annan was even bold enough to suggest that the right of self-determination is the prerogative of the Security Council. In his last report on Western Sahara, October 2006, Annan warned that "Polisario would be well advised to enter into negotiations now, while there is still consensus in the Council that a negotiated political solution must provide for the self-determination of the people of Western Sahara."

But Polisario is not in the mood, nor is it willing, to make further concessions. The Western Saharan independence movement has already agreed to a referendum under the 2003 Baker Plan that would be dominated by Moroccan settlers. Indeed, Polisario has made all of the major concessions in the peace process: from the criteria for registering referendum voters to agreeing to live under Moroccan autonomy for four years before a referendum. The movement's officials reasonably argue that it can't make any more concessions. All that is left to compromise is Polisario's fundamental core: the right to a vote on independence. Abandoning self-determination would completely de-legitimize Polisario in the eyes of its constituents and its international support. If a compromise is unlikely from either Morocco or Polisario, the autonomy option is a non-starter.

Negotiating autonomy will also require secret talks so that no one loses face. Again, the problem is that Polisario's leadership is neither willing nor able to enter into such negotiations. Any backroom deal for autonomy is unlikely to receive support from Western Saharan nationalists, especially in the camps. Most Western Saharan nationalists still think the 2003 Baker Plan is a dangerous compromise, only made worthwhile by Morocco's stern rejection of it. However, many nationalists swear that the Baker Plan was the last and ultimate compromise. If that is the limit of Polisario's concessions, then there should be little hope for autonomy.


Implementation

The challenges to autonomy are not just in the negotiating stage. Both sides also have reasons for concern about implementation, should it come to that. To create an environment where Sahrawi refugees feel safe to return, both Morocco's military-security apparatus and the numbers of Moroccan settlers will have to decrease. For autonomy to work, Western Sahara must revert to being Sahrawi, not Moroccan, in both the majority of its citizens and the visible elements of its regional security. However, in any autonomy scheme, Rabat will constantly fear separatist moves, so it will demand a sizable military presence to guarantee its "territorial integrity." Finding a balance will be difficult if not impossible, yet this issue is not even on the radar.

The real question, however, is whether or not the international community, especially the Security Council, is willing to invest in the kind of multinational peace-building project such an autonomy agreement would warrant. No one is talking about how to get Morocco and Polisario to work together after 30 years of mutual mistrust. Then there are the coercive aspects of implementing autonomy: will an international force be required to maintain the peace if Sahrawi separatists organize an insurgency and Moroccan settlers form death squads?

The implementation of autonomy thus involves many moving parts and will require a credible threat -- if not the actual use -- of force from the international community. For autonomy to work in Western Sahara, there has to be a tripartite willingness that has been historically lacking: the willingness of Morocco, Polisario, and the Security Council.

In 2003, Baker asked the Security Council to endorse his proposal so that he could have a mandate to twist some arms. Instead, he got a weak vote of support after Morocco protested directly to France and the United States. Will the Security Council suddenly find the will to use coercion in support of autonomy in Western Sahara? If so, this begs the question: Why reject self-determination because it requires coercion when autonomy will need the same? Autonomy is, after all, a far more complicated solution to implement than an independent Western Sahara.


Washington's options

The problem of Western Sahara is not that the Moroccan annexation is a fait accompli, which is one of the dominant assumptions driving calls for autonomy. Instead, the determinant reality is that Western Saharan nationalism is growing, not diminishing. Thirty years of exile (for the Sahrawi refugees in Algeria) and socio-economic marginalization (for the Sahrawis under Moroccan administration) have strengthened their resolve, not diminished it. In the streets of Western Sahara, an escalating dialectic of violence is being played out day by day. Protest meets repression meets counter-protest meets police retaliation in an endless cycle. How much longer can Polisario's leaders justify to their constituents, without losing all credibility, the maintenance of a cease-fire that is now considered pointless by many nationalists? Sooner or later the international community must face this fact, or they will be forced to face it. We can either intervene in a realistic manner or we can, feigning ignorance, let another obscure African conflict deteriorate before our very eyes.

The politics of the least-worst option in Western Sahara are no longer working. The time has come for a new approach. The Security Council has to confront the Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara and bring it to a legal and practical end using the weapons of non-violence at its disposal.

There is only one hope for a peaceful and just resolution to the Western Sahara conflict. Key states, like the U.S. government, must back up their rhetorical support of self-determination with meaningful action. International pressure must build on Morocco to allow and respect an internationally organized expression of self-determination for the native population of Western Sahara. As Morocco is highly sensitive to its international image, the only weapon required is the tool of shame. At the same time, though, Morocco's domestic stability and reform should be supported in word and deed.

Thus the U.S. government should take a two-track approach in its relations with Morocco: supporting self-determination in Western Sahara on the one hand while supporting Moroccan stability and reforms on the other. In other words, Washington should decouple support for Rabat from support for the occupation of Western Sahara. The U.S. Congress should reaffirm its support for U.S. initiatives aimed at supporting Moroccan stability and internal democratization processes. But Congress should simultaneously press the White House to support self-determination in Western Sahara. None of this, however, will be possible without political will. International, grassroots, faith- and community-based organizations will have to create broader awareness of the problem in the United States. Such pressure helped bring a peaceful end to apartheid in South Africa and was key to ending Indonesia's occupation of East Timor.

Jacob Mundy is coauthor, with Stephen Zunes, of Western Sahara: War, Nationalism and Conflict Irresolution (Syracuse University Press, forthcoming). He is a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus (www.fpif.org).

 

 

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