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CounterPunch
March 19,
2003
Don't Look for Democracy
Predictions
About the Iraq War
By CHUCK O'CONNELL
Back in 1999 after looking at the sanctions program
against Iraq and the NATO war against Yugoslavia, I made a few
predictions to my students which I have reiterated each subsequent
year. Those predictions were as follows:
1. The U.S. would invade Iraq.
2. The U.S. would project military power
into the Caspian - Central Asia region.
3. The European Union would seek to dissociate
itself from U.S. foreign policy and chart its own course.
Why did I make these predictions and
why have they come true?
Foretelling a U.S. war against Iraq was
fairly easy to do. The explanation is that the U.S. backed sanctions
program was designed to destroy the country economically and
militarily; in effect, it was a form of siege warfare designed
to degrade the target (Iraq) making it much easier to conquer.
Added to the sanctions program was the imposition of northern
and southern "no-fly" zones which not only effectively
denied to the Iraqi military the airspace over the country's
northern and southern perimeters but also allowed the U.S. and
UK air forces to bomb northern and southern Iraq to pieces on
a regular basis. The U.S. thus softened up the invasion routes
for the conquest of Iraq. In short, the coming war represents
a continuation of the ongoing war against Iraq. It will be Phase
III. Phase I was Desert Storm - kicking Iraq out of Kuwait.
Not knowing how the Iraqi Army would perform on its home soil
and not having a suitable replacement for Saddam Hussein, the
U.S. began Phase II - siege warfare plus bombing to reduce Iraqi
defenses while a replacement could be found for Hussein. This
low intensity warfare has finally accomplished its task and now
the "necessary" reasons for invasion have been trotted
out to justify the war and occupation.
"But why invade Iraq?", the
students asked. Answer: The Baath regime (which the U.S. helped
come to power in 1963 by assisting its coup against a previous
Iraqi government) no longer served as the compliant vassal of
U.S. political economic interests in the region. The Baath's
eventual leader, Saddam Hussein - like other U.S. protégés
before him (Ngo Dinh Diem in Viet Nam, Ferdinand Marcos in the
Philippines, Manuel Noreiga in Panama) developed illusions of
autonomy and began to pursue policies inimical to the visions
of Washington. In seeking to expand his role as a grand Arab
leader free of U.S. constraints, Hussein "crossed the line".
His crimes which heretofore had been ignored were given wide
airplay to shift public opinion against him. (When he was seen
as an agent of U.S. policy, those crimes were conveniently ignored.
One of my favorite pictures on my desk is the 1983 photo of Ronald
Reagan's special Middle East envoy, Donald Rumsfeld - yes, that
Rumsfeld! - shaking hands with Saddam Hussein in Baghdad; soon
thereafter, the U.S. began supplying biochem weapons to Iraq.)
The occupation of Iraq will allow the U.S. to reassert control
of the oil fields which had been contracted out to foreign competitors
(France, Russia, and China) and also to position itself militarily
on the western flank of Iran (the other part of the "axis
of evil"). With this move, the U.S. will have Iran almost
surrounded: American troops are on Iran's eastern flank in Afghanistan,
southern flank with the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf, and western
border in Iraq. With the Iraq "threat" erased after
the removal of Hussein, watch the White House and media develop
the new "threat": Iran.
This extension of U.S. military might
throughout the Middle East/Persian Gulf region into Central Asia
(the 'stans) is a process that extends back to the fall of the
old American ally, the Shah of Iran, and the subsequent loss
of Persian oilfields to U.S. control. Since 1980 the U.S. has
built up its airlift and sealift capabilities in the region and
developed new bases to preposition itself for war. In 1997 the
Army dropped 500 paratroopers into Kazakhstan to test its airlift
capabilities for war in Central Asia and in 1999 took Central
Asia out of the Pacific Command and put it into the Central Command
which oversees the oil rich Middle East. This put the Central
Asian countries (which abut the Caspian Sea and Iran) into the
sphere of plans for Mideast warfare.
New predictions:
1. The Iraqi oilfields will not be put
in the hands of the Iraqi people; they will be privatized and
awarded to appropriate corporate investors.
2. The French, Russians, and Chinese
will lose their existing contracts to develop the Iraqi oilfields
and Exxon Mobil, Chevron Texaco, and British Petroleum will
become the major players in Iraq. The rebuilding of the damaged
oilfields will go to Vice-President Dick Cheney's old company,
Halliburton.
3. None of the foregoing will constitute
"proof" that the war was for oil profits.It will simply
be "coincidence".
4. Democracy will NOT come to Iraq. What
will happen is that some very rich exiled Iraqi who has made
it clear in the past several months to the State Department
and CIA that he is and will be forever and ever in complete
agreement with what ever the Americans want in Iraq shall become
the new ruler. He will be labeled by the U.S. press as a democratic
wonder and indeed may have the trappings of "elections"
(just as Hussein had "elections"). But the people
of Iraq will be no more "free" than the people of Kuwait
are today (even though we "liberated" them 12 years
ago).
5. Iraq will not be rebuilt into an affluent
middle class nation. Oil profits will flow to a small upper class
and the mass of people will be forgotten by the prowar crowd
and the government that waged the war to save the Iraqi people
from Hussein. Eventually the misery of the Iraqi people will
be blamed on the Iraqis themselves.
6.The Kurdish problem will not go away
because the Turks (the "allies" Bush tried to buy for
26 billion dollars) will not accept a Kurdish nation.
7. Bush will not solve the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict; on the contrary, it's not unlikely that the Sharon
government might use this war for some "population transfer"
under the rationale of fighting terrorism.
8. The U.S. war against Iraq will further
the efforts of the EU, Russia, and China to develop the political
and military strength to check the U.S. This will be a longterm
process but they will either do it or become vassals. Their main
fear is not that ExxonMobil gets Iraqi oil profits but that
the U.S. will have effective military control over the bulk
of their oil supplies from Saudi Arabia though Iraq to the
new fields of the Caspian. Such control will give the U.S. unprecedented
leverage over these nations because the U.S. will dominate
a region containing 70% of the world's energy reserves.
9. Watch the White House and the media
begin to increase the demonization of Iran. Pressure will be
put on Tehran to submit to U.S. demands. If the leadership in
Iran fails to comply with U.S. demands, then America will be
"forced" to stand up to another threat to world peace.
That's enough for now.
Chuck O'Connell teaches
sociology at the University of California Irvine. He can be reached
at: COconnellm@aol.com
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