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How Bill Saved Hillary from a Federal Indictment

Here’s the second in Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St. Clair’s series as they describe Hillary Clinton’s years in Little Rock and her narrow escape from federal charges that would have destroyed her political career for ever.PLUS KEVIN ALEXANDER GRAY on how Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are failing Black America even as they hunt for votes in South Carolina’s “Black Primary.” Get your copy today by subscribing online or calling 1-800-840-3683 Remember contributions to CounterPunch are tax--deductible. Click here to make a donation. If you find our site useful please: Subscribe Now

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"Imperial Crusades: a Diary of Three Wars" by Cockburn and St. Clair

Today's Stories

August 10, 2007

Paul Craig Roberts
China's Threat to the Dollar is Real

Daniel Ellsberg
A Vision for Cindy Sheehan's Campaign

August 9, 2007

Stan Goff
The Fog of Fame: Pat Tillman as Everyone's Political Football

Paul Craig Roberts
In the Hole to China

Alan Farago
The Terror of the Mortgage Pools

William S. Lind
The Surge's New Math: One Step Forward, Two Back

Doug Giebel
Letter from Montana: What the Bushvolk Have Done to America

Harvey Wasserman
Radioactive Bailout in Advance

Jacob Hill
The Tail End of Free Trade: NAFTA's Impact on the Manufacturing Sector

Raul Zibechi
The Dark Side of Agrofuels

Dave Zirin
The Making of Barry bin Laden

Website of the Day
"Babies Just Come with the Scenery"

 

August 8, 2007

Andy Worthington
Backing Up Lt. Col. Abraham on Gitmo Abuse

Jeff Halper
The Catch in Israel's "Generous Offers" at Jericho

Greg Moses
No Light in August for Texas Refugees: Judge Orders Baby Sent to Palestine

Nurit Peled-Elhanan
The Murder of Abir Aramin, 9 Years Old

Sukant Chandan
British Prisons as Islamic Universities

Robert Fisk
A Lebanese Surprise

George H. Strauss
The Military Society

D.K. Wilson
Bonds, the Haters and 756: Why Bob Costas Can't be Trusted

Bill Day
Leonardo DiCaprio's Baggage: the Perils of Celebrity Environmentalism

Tim Campbell
Monkey See, Monkey Do Politics

Website of the Day
Periodic Table of Visualization Methods

 

August 7, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
Why the Surge Has Failed

Andy Worthington
Why Do We Need the Democrats?: They Have Failed to Restrain Bush on Gitmo, Iraq and Domestic Spying

Kathy Kelly
The Little Girl of Hiroshima

Stan Cox
The Antiwar Majority: Look Quickly, You Might Miss It

Sonja Karkar
Israel's Settlement Project

Sen. Russ Feingold
A License to Wiretap--Anyone

Alan Farago
Dancing in the Light of Florida

Norman Solomon
Let Us Now Praise an Infamous Woman

Binoy Kampmark
Giving Good Face: What Jeremy Bentham and Facebook Have in Common

Dave Lindorff
The Gelding Congress

John Stauber
Coffee with the Troops at Yearly Kos

Website of the Day
George Carlin on Education

August 6, 2007

Bill Quigley
Fighting for the Right to Learn in New Orleans

Kathy Rentenbach
Guatemalan Gold, Guatemalan Bones

Uri Avnery
White Elephants: Bush's Middle East Arms Deals

Col. Dan Smith
Of Time and Iraq

Ralph Nader
Cruise Ship Blues

James Neshewat
War? What War?: a Report from the New SDS Confab in Detroit

D.K. Wilson
Barry, Bud and 755

Greg Moses
Safe Passage for Willie Nelson

Fidel Castro
Hard and Obvious Realities

Mike Whitney
Judgment Week on Wall Street

 

August 4 / 5, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Rupert Murdoch and the Luck of the Bancrofts

Peter Linebaugh
Speaking in Irish Tongues

Saul Landau
Faith-Based War

Alan Farago
The Candidates and the Collapsing Economy

Dave Zirin
When Domes Attack: Even in Minnesota

Barucha Calamity Peller
Oaxaca is Not Over

Anthony DiMaggio
Double Standards in U.S. Aid to the Middle East

Dave Lindorff
Spy Power: Bush Demands, Democrats Deliver--Again and Again and Again

Fred Gardner
Write Off Your Congressman

Nicola Nasser
The Iranian Option

Benjamin Dangl
Privatizing Repression in Paraguay

Rannie Amiri
Bribe, Divide and Conquer

Daniel Gross
CSR on Trial: Starbucks Behind the Brand

Sherwood Ross
Obama Renounces Use of Nuclear Weapons

Manuel Garcia, Jr
A Bridge Truth Movement?: From 9/11 to Minneapolis

Missy Beattie
The First Mannequin and the "Crime Scene"

Ron Jacobs
The Outlaw Trip to Mexico: Goin' Down the Road Feelin' Bad

Website of the Weekend
Photos: Texas Immigrant Prison

 

August 3, 2007

Gabriel Matthew Schivone
An Interview with Noam Chomsky on Responsibility, War Guilt and Intellectuals

Jonathan Cook
Israel's Jewish Problem in Tehran

Patrick Cockburn
Sunnis Walk Out of Iraq Government

Little Steven Van Zandt
Die, Greedy Swine! Die! Die!: How the Record Companies are Killing Rock Music

Christopher Brauchli
Bush Makes Putin Look Like James Madison

D. K. Wilson
Two Sides and a Middle: Michael Vick Ain't the One to Ask

Linda Ford and Ira Glunts
Maxwell's Silver Hammer: Syracuse University Enlists in the Global War on Terror

Kelly Overton
The Casualties of Green Scare: the Feds' War on the Animal Rights Mvt.

Monica Benderman
In Freedom's Name

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
Minneapolis Bridge Collapse: Was Cheney at the Scene?

Website of the Day
A Cinematic Look at the Police State in Action

 

August 2, 2007

Paul Craig Roberts
The Return of the Robber Barons

Stanley Heller
Report from the Land of Apartheid

Eric Ruder
Fighting PTSD; Fighting the Army

Robert Fantina
Still Getting It Wrong: the NYT and Iraq

Alan Farago
The Toxic Mortgage Waste Crisis

Chris Floyd
Chertoff, Chiquita and Death Squads

Franklin Lamb
Lebanon's Crucial Special Elections

Sen. Russ Feingold
Closing the Book on the Abramoff Era

Anthony Papa
Drug Treatment isn't a Silver Bullet

Norman Solomon
The Big Guns of August

Website of the Day
Louie, Louie Video Contest

 

August 1, 2007

Debbie Nathan
More Secret Payments by Former NYT Reporter to Web Porn Star Surface in Nashville Courtroom

Fred Gardner
Ciao, Michelangelo

Gary Leupp
Why Iraq's Best-Loved Athlete Can't Go Home

David Rosen
America's Top 10 Political Sex Scandals

Winston Warfield
Is the Tillman Case Still a Coverup?

Daniel McBride
Lessons from Bomber Harris: If the US Strikes Pakistan

Glen Ford
The Corporate Plan to Crush Black Resistance

Thomas P. Healy
The Toxic Career of Indiana's Environmental Commissioner

John V. Whitbeck
The Five Percent Solution

David Krieger
Nuclear Weapons and the University of California

Website of the Day
The Tragic Story of Hisham Mohammed

 

July 31, 2007

Kathy Kelly
Dancing in the Darkness: the Story of Abu Mahmoud

Clancy Sigal
The Ghosts of Passchendaele

Paul Krassner
Assholes of the Week: From Baby Doll to Cheney

Joe DeRaymond
Return to the Republic of Death?

Diane Christian
"Winning": What Bush Could Learn from the Shade of Achilles

Chris Floyd
Good News is No News: Why the Bush Adm. Buries Accounts of Extremist Recantations

Ramzy Baroud
Bush's Real Agenda in Palestine

Alan Farago
Battle for the Soul of Florida

Fidel Castro
In Spite of Everything: Reflections on the Pan American Games

Dan Bacher
The Fish Terminator: Schwarzenegger's Campaign to Build the Delta Canal and More Dams

 

July 30, 2007

Marjorie Cohn: Independent Counsel Time

Patrick Cockburn
Four Million Iraqis on the Run

Peter Quinn
Irish in America

Uri Avnery
A Warning to Tony Blair

John Ross
Zapatista Intergalatica Lands on Earth

Ron Jacobs
Free the San Francisco 8

David Vest
Farewell, Old Friend: Another Legend of the Blues is Gone

Jeffrey St. Clair
T99 Nelson: Seduced by a Legend of the Blues

Website of the Day
Collateral Repair Project

 

July 28 / 29, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Now the NYT is Selling "Bloodbath" as a Rationale to Stay in Iraq

Ralph Nader
Rotten Justice

Robert Fantina
American Lies and Iraqi Nationalism

Fred Gardner
Prohibitionists Attack, Reformers Fundraise

 

Yves Engler
Handwashing and the Bottomline

 

July 27, 2007

John Ross
Bombing Pemex--or Not?

Arthur Neslen
Gaza was a Gas for Blair

Dave Lindorff
Declaring the US a Battlefield: Martial Law is Now a Real Threat

Julene Blair
The Environmentalist Within

Christopher Brauchli
Bush Uses Children as Shock Troops in His War on Socialized Medicine

Jesse Hagopian
Fund the Wounded, Not the War

Charles Modiano
Manufacturing a Villain: Sports Illustrated's Vilification of Barry Bonds

Bill Day
The Hollow Environmentalism of Leonardo DiCaprio

Walter Brasch
Leaders Afraid to Lead

M.D. Mitchell
Farm Based Camps

Website of the Day
Fighting Sarcoma

 

July 26, 2007

Kathleen Christison
The Siren Song of Elliot Abrams

Andy Worthington
Why the Pentagon's Gitmo Study is a Joke

Clancy Chassay
How the Bush White House Seeks to Destroy Lebanon

Marjorie Cohn
Showdown Over Executive Privilege

Susie Day
Apartheid Americana

David Price
Tour de Witch Hunt: Drugs, Diaries and Purges

Marie Trigona
Argentina's "Dirty War" Crimes Trial: The Torturer Priest

Norman Solomon
Media Spin on Iraq: We're Leaving (Sort Of)

William S. Lind
How to Win in Iraq

Natsu Saito
Ward Churchill and the Regents at the University of Colorado

John Stauber
Netroots and the Iraq War: Does Ending It Matter to Them Anymore?

Website of the Day
Sticking It to the Man

 

July 25, 2007

Andy Worthington
Gains and Losses at Gitmo

Gary Leupp
Bush Speechwriter, Michael Gerson, Calls for Attack on Syria

Ray McGovern
The Sad Decline of John Conyers

Dr. Susan Block
Bonobo Bashing in the New Yorker

Joshua Frank
Hillary's Neocon: the Imperial Vision of Richard Holbrooke

Tina Richards
What Harry Reid Doesn't Know About His Own Bill

Ben Terrall
Indonesia's Bloody Brand of CounterTerrorism

Farzana Versey
God Acquitted!: Lessons from the Case of Darwood Ibrahim

Mohammad Ali Salih
A Bomb in My Briefcase?

Laura Carlsen
A Strange Homecoming: Reflections on the First US Social Forum

Ron Jacobs
Come to Kennebunkport!

Sunsara Taylor
Knocked Up is F**ked Up

Website of the Day
Wal-Mart's Flip Flops: Feet Killers


July 24, 2007

Saul Landau
How to Walk in Bushtime

Kathy Kelly
The Plight of Iraqi Refugees in Jordan

Russell Mokhiber
The Michael Vick / George Bush Thing

M. Shahid Alam
Islam Now, China Then

Patrick Cockburn and Anne Penketh
Meeting in Baghdad

Dave Lindorff
Overcoming John Conyers

Binoy Kampmark
You Tube You Can't: Failure of a Medium

Richard Neville
Murdoch's Transplant: a Warning to the Wall Street Journal

Cindy Sheehan
We Must Move Beyond Politics as Usual

Evelyn Pringle
Anti-Depressants and Birth Defects: Why is the CDC Downplaying the Risks?

Norman Solomon
Media Corrections We'd Like to See

CP Newswire
Reading Harry Potter Not Sinful

Website of the Day
Sea Islands Black Heritage Festival

 

July 23, 2007

Andy Worthington
Narcolepsy on Gitmo Detainees

Uri Avnery
A Trap for Fools

Patrick Cockburn
Turkish Prime Minister Threatens to Invade Northern Iraq

Sousan Hammad
The Children Without a Title

John Walsh
Todd Gitlin's Nader Fixation

Harvey Wasserman
Spinning Kashiwazaki: PR Flacks Rush to Aid of Crippled Nuke

Martha Rosenberg
The Life and Times of a Hog-Hanging Farmer

Collin Baber
Here Come the MRAPs: Resurrecting Apartheid Armor for Iraq

Reza Fiyouzat
Iran's Forgotten Anti-Nuke Movement

Stephen Lendman
Saving a President: Scare-Mongering and Executive Orders

Website of the Day
The Port Huron Project

 

July 21 / 22, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Giuliani and the Dogs of War

Werther
How to Read a National Intelligence Estimate

Ralph Nader
Atomic Blowback

David Keen
Buy Hard: How to Sell an Endless War

Fred Gardner
Karl Rove, Pothead: When Good Drugs Happen to Bad People

Gary Leupp
Edelman's Edict: Is Hillary "Reinforcing Enemy Propaganda?"

Robert Fantina
Fear in Iraq

Saker
The Future of Palestine: an Interview with Jonathan Cook

Rannie Amiri
Nasrallah in the Crosshairs: How will the Third Lebanon War Start?

Mike Whitney
The Crisis in Hedgistan

Dr. Susan Rosenthal, MD
The Hidden Injuries of Powerlessness: Linking Alienation and Dissociation

Monica Benderman
Facing the Truth

Dan Bacher
Deltagate: the Politics of Fish Kills

Michael Baney
Fujimori's Long Race From Justice

Missy Beattie
Here, There and Everywhere

Ron Jacobs
Tremble, Tyrants

Adam Engel
Radical Language: an Introduction

Thomas Naylor
California Split: an Open Letter to Schwarzenegger

Poets' Basement
Landau, Ford and Engel

Website of the Weekend
Surge in Action

 

July 20, 2007

Eliza Szabo
Fatal Neglect: Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan

Pam Martens
Doctoring the News: CNN's Sanjay Gupta, Laura Bush and Merck

Alan Farago
Winners and Losers in the Housing Market Crash

Harvey Wasserman
Lies and Leaks: The Earthquake That Screamed "No Nukes!"

Marjorie Cohn
Iraqis will be the Deciders

Dave Zirin
White Noise and the Black Athlete

Anthony DiMaggio
American Public Opinion and Israel

Scott Liebertz
Oaxaca on Edge

Linn Washington, Jr.
British Cops Assault Rape Allegations

Bill Piper / Anthony Papa
Flying High?: The Political Junkets of Bush's Drug Czar

Ramzy Baroud
Bush's War Policy: When Time Heals Nothing

Website of the Day
The Prankster Art of Mark Jenkins

 

July 19, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
The Next Invasion of Iraq

Remi Kanazi
Is This Ben Gurion or Hell?: a Palestinian Adventure Through Israel's Largest Airport

Winslow T. Wheeler
The Surging Costs of the Iraq War

Sharon Smith
Democrats and Health Care: Behind the Rhetoric

Dave Lindorff
Killing Cabbies in Iraq

Conn Hallinan
Have Gun, Will Travel: Mercenaries in Iraq and Afghanistan

D. K. Wilson
The Michael Vick Case Pulls Back the Veil on Who We Really Are

Joshua Frank
Democrats as Leviathan: Another Step Toward War with Iran

Norman Solomon
The Ghost of Wayne Morse

Russell Hoffman
Rattling the Reactor: Quakes, Fires and Leaks at the World's Largest Nuke

Ray McGovern
Bush's Wooden Headedness Kills

Website of the Day
Protesting Power


July 18, 2007

Brenda Norrell
Spy Towers on the US Border

Col. Dan Smith
How the US Could "Lose" Saudi Arabia

Martha Rosenberg
Lord of Crookharbour: the Trial of Conrad Black

Conn Hallinan
Bombing and Spraying Afghanistan

Binoy Kampmark
The SIM Card Terror Case

Patrick Bond /
Rehana Dada

Who Killed Sajida Khan?

Tom Johnson
The Long Road ... to Nowhere

Paul Craig Roberts
A Free Press or a Ministry of Truth?

Bob Quellos
Pushing the Poor Out of House and Home

Felice Pace
Falling for Lieberman's Iran Resolution

Robert Weissman
National Health Insurance: More Humane and More Efficient

CP Newswire
Shocking Report Showing Involvement of US Psychologists in Torture

Website of the Day
Gilad Atzmon Live!

 

July 17, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
Just Another Day in Iraq: 100 Fathers, Mothers and Children Killed

Marjorie Cohn
Out of Control: Executive Power Plays

Evelyn Pringle
Inside Bush's FDA

David Rosen
Moral Hypocrisy on the Hill: the Christian Right, Sexual Scandal and the Pleasures of the Courtesan

Susan Miller
Width Matters: Displacement and Israel's Wall

Franklin Lamb
Did the UN Cave to Israel on Lebanon's Shabaa Farms?

Don Monkerud
Considering Victory in Iraq

Harvey Wasserman
Nuclear Surge

Russell Hoffman
Japan Dodges a Radioactive Bullet

Dave Lindorff
Feingold Turns to Dross

Dave Zirin
Reclaiming Sports as True Fiction

Website of the Day
Che at the UN: 1964

 

July 16, 2007

Gary Leupp
Cheney Urges Bush to Strike Iran

Ellen Cantarow
The Untold Story of Iraqi Women

Paul Craig Roberts
Impeach Now

Allan J. Lichtman
The D.C. Madam's Public Service

Dan Bacher
Cheney and the Klamath: Was the Veep Behind the Nation's Worst Salmon Kill?

Patrick Cockburn
The Killing of Khalid W. Hassan

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
Property is Racism

James Brooks
AIPAC and Mahmoud Abbas: the Undemocratic Road to Defeat

Liaquat Ali Khan
The Judicial Crisis in Pakistan

Julie Flint
Suleiman Jamous in Limbo

Website of the Day
Free Suleiman Jamous!

 

July 14 / 15. 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Support Their Troops?

Andy Worthington
Gitmo's Tangled Web: Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Majhid Khan, Dubious US Convictions and a Dying Man

Ralph Nader
Lawlessness, Waste and Incompetence

Robert Fantina
The Illegalities of the Iraq War

Ron Jacobs
Architecture as Military Strategy

Joshua Frank
Eat, Fight, Screw, Pray: An Interview with Joe Bageant

Conn Hallinan
Guns, Foundations and Free Trade: How the Right Targets Africa

Dr. Susan Rosenthal, MD
War and Dissociation

John Ross
No En Nuestro Nombre!: a Letter to the Mexican Antiwar Movement

Fred Gardner
Who's Afraid of Cannabidiol?

Rannie Amiri
A Primer on Israeli Doublespeak

Charles Modiano
ESPN's Rap Sheet: Pacman as Black Man

Anthony DiMaggio
America's Parochial Press

China Hand
Executive Orders and Coercive Diplomacy

Missy Comley Beattie
Reprobate Rhetoricians

Dr. James J. Murtagh, Jr.
Harry Potter Battles Big Brother

Kenneth Rexroth
On Thomas More's "Utopia"

Poets' Basement
Engel, Davies and Orloski

Website of the Weekend
GOP Sex Hypocrites: a Slideshow

 

 

August 9, 2007

One Big Reason Markets are Plunging

China's Threat to the Dollar is Real

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

Twenty-four hours after I reported China’s announcement that China, not the Federal Reserve, controls US interest rates by its decision to purchase, hold, or dump US Treasury bonds, the news of the announcement appeared in sanitized and unthreatening form in a few US news sources.

The Washington Post found an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin to provide reassurances that it was “not really a credible threat” that China would intervene in currency or bond markets in any way that could hurt the dollar’s value or raise US interest rates, because China would hurt its own pocketbook by such actions.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, just back from Beijing, where he gave China orders to raise the value of the Chinese yuan “without delay,” dismissed the Chinese announcement as “frankly absurd.”

Both the professor and the Treasury Secretary are greatly mistaken.

First, understand that the announcement was not made by a minister or vice minister of the government. The Chinese government is inclined to have important announcements come from research organizations that work closely with the government. This announcement came from two such organizations. A high official of the Development Research Center, an organization with cabinet rank, let it be known that US financial stability was too dependent on China’s financing of US red ink for the US to be giving China orders. An official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the reserve currency status of the US dollar was dependent on China’s good will as America’s lender.

What the two officials said is completely true. It is something that some of us have known for a long time. What is different is that China publicly called attention to Washington’s dependence on China’s good will. By doing so, China signaled that it was not going to be bullied or pushed around.

The Chinese made no threats. To the contrary, one of the officials said, “China doesn’t want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order.” The Chinese message is different. The message is that Washington does not have hegemony over Chinese policy, and if matters go from push to shove, Washington can expect financial turmoil.

Paulson can talk tough, but the Treasury has no foreign currencies with which to redeem its debt. The way the Treasury pays off the bonds that come due is by selling new bonds, a hard sell in a falling market deserted by the largest buyer.

Paulson found solace in his observation that the large Chinese holdings of US Treasuries comprise only “one day’s trading volume in Treasuries.” This is a meaningless comparison. If the supply suddenly doubled, does Paulson think the price of Treasuries would not fall and the interest rate not rise? If Paulson believes that US interest rates are independent of China’s purchases and holdings of Treasuries, Bush had better quickly find himself a new Treasury Secretary.

Now let’s examine the University of Wisconsin economist’s opinion that China cannot exercise its power because it would result in losses on its dollar holdings. It is true that if China were to bring any significant percentage of its holdings to market, or even cease to purchase new Treasury issues, the prices of bonds would decline, and China’s remaining holdings would be worth less. The question, however, is whether this is of any consequence to China, and, if it is, whether this cost is greater or lesser than avoiding the cost that Washington is seeking to impose on China.

American economists make a mistake in their reasoning when they assume that China needs large reserves of foreign exchange. China does not need foreign exchange reserves for the usual reasons of supporting its currency’s value and paying its trade bills. China does not allow its currency to be traded in currency markets. Indeed, there are not enough yuan available to trade. Speculators, betting on the eventual rise of the yuan’s value, are trying to capture future gains by trading “virtual yuan.” The other reason is that China does not have foreign trade deficits, and does not need reserves in other currencies with which to pay its bills. Indeed, if China had creditors, the creditors would be pleased to be paid in yuan as the currency is thought to be undervalued.

Despite China’s support of the Treasury bond market, China’s large holdings of dollar-denominated financial instruments have been depreciating for some time as the dollar declines against other traded currencies, because people and central banks in other countries are either reducing their dollar holdings or ceasing to add to them. China’s dollar holdings reflect the creditor status China acquired when US corporations offshored their production to China. Reportedly, 70 per cent of the goods on Wal-Mart’s shelves are made in China. China has gained technology and business knowhow from the US firms that have moved their plants to China. China has large coastal cities, choked with economic activity and traffic, that make America’s large cities look like country towns. China has raised about 300 million of its population into higher living standards, and is now focusing on developing a massive internal market some 4 to 5 times more populous than America’s.

The notion that China cannot exercise its power without losing its US markets is wrong. American consumers are as dependent on imports of manufactured goods from China as they are on imported oil. In addition, the profits of US brand name companies are dependent on the sale to Americans of the products that they make in China. The US cannot, in retaliation, block the import of goods and services from China without delivering a knock-out punch to US companies and US consumers. China has many markets and can afford to lose the US market easier than the US can afford to lose the American brand names on Wal-Mart’s shelves that are made in China. Indeed, the US is even dependent on China for advanced technology products. If truth be known, so much US production has been moved to China that many items on which consumers depend are no longer produced in America.

Now let’s consider the cost to China of dumping dollars or Treasuries compared to the cost that the US is trying to impose on China. If the latter is higher than the former, it pays China to exercise the “nuclear option” and dump the dollar.

The US wants China to revalue the yuan, that is, to make the dollar value of the yuan higher. Instead of a dollar being worth 8 yuan, for example, Washington wants the dollar to be worth only 5.5 yuan. Washington thinks that this would cause US exports to China to increase, as they would be cheaper for the Chinese, and for Chinese exports to the US to decline, as they would be more expensive. This would end, Washington thinks, the large trade deficit that the US has with China.

This way of thinking dates from pre-offshoring days. In former times, domestic and foreign-owned companies would compete for one another’s markets, and a country with a lower valued currency might gain an advantage.

Today, however, about half of the so-called US imports from China are the offshored production of US companies for their American markets. The US companies produce in China, not because of the exchange rate, but because labor, regulatory, and harassment costs are so much lower in China. Moreover, many US firms have simply moved to China, and the cost of abandoning their new Chinese facilities and moving production back to the US would be very high.

When all these costs are considered, it is unclear how much China would have to revalue its currency in order to cancel its cost advantages and cause US firms to move enough of their production back to America to close the trade gap.

To understand the shortcomings of the statements by the Wisconsin professor and Treasury Secretary Paulson, consider that if China were to increase the value of the yuan by 30 percent, the value of China’s dollar holdings would decline by 30 percent. It would have the same effect on China’s pocketbook as dumping dollars and Treasuries in the markets.

Consider also, that as revaluation causes the yuan to move up in relation to the dollar (the reserve currency), it also causes the yuan to move up against every other traded currency. Thus, the Chinese cannot revalue as Paulson has ordered without making Chinese goods more expensive not merely to Americans but everywhere.

Compare this result with China dumping dollars. With the yuan pegged to the dollar, China can dump dollars without altering the exchange rate between the yuan and the dollar. As the dollar falls, the yuan falls with it. Goods and services produced in China do not become more expensive to Americans, and they become cheaper elsewhere. By dumping dollars, China expands its entry into other markets and accumulates more foreign currencies from trade surpluses.

Now consider the non-financial costs to China’s self-image and rising prestige of permitting the US government to set the value of its currency. America’s problems are of its own making, not China’s. A rising power such as China is likely to prove a reluctant scapegoat for America’s decades of abuse of its reserve currency status.

Economists and government officials believe that a rise in consumer prices by 30 per cent is good if it results from yuan revaluation, but that it would be terrible, even beyond the pale, if the same 30 percent rise in consumer prices resulted from a tariff put on goods made in China. The hard pressed American consumer would be hit equally hard either way. It is paradoxical that Washington is putting pressure on China to raise US consumer prices, while blaming China for harming Americans. As is usually the case, the harm we suffer is inflicted by Washington.

Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions. He can be reached at: paulcraigroberts@yahoo.com



 



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