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Recent
Stories
April
21, 2003
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April 21,
2003
"The Regime is Gone"
Early Lessons
from Iraq
by Col. DAN SMITH
With the main fighting in Iraq ending and the
Ba'ath party hold on the levers of power broken, the U.S. and
UK can justly claim military success. Coalition casualties have
been low, and all coalition personnel known to have been held
by the Iraqis have been freed. For the second time in 18 months,
governments accused of harboring and supporting terrorists have
been deposed. Iraqis, like their Afghan brethren last year, have
been released from an oppressive and brutal regime.
But unlike Afghanistan, where U.S. forces
were relatively few and powerful warlords exercised control of
and imposed order on different regions outside the capital, Iraqi
security services were so pervasive that virtually no real alternate
power centers ever developed inside the country. Exiled Iraqis
tried to create viable opposition to Saddam's rule, but even
with Pentagon and State Department support (often for different
factions), they made little progress. A number of the exiles
returned under U.S. auspices, but they have had little impact
to date.
Meanwhile, television commentaries and
images of celebrating Iraqis quickly became images of utter chaos--unrestrained
looting and even wanton destruction of property. If it could
be moved, it was taken; if it couldn't, it was smashed or burned.
Whether in Basra or Baghdad, Kirkuk or Mosul, the coalition forces
were simply too few to even seriously attempt regaining control
of the cities without the cooperation of large segments of the
population, which they did not have. The following two examples
illustrate the problem:
In Basra, British forces (who are in
division strength) designated a local Sunni tribal sheik and
former brigadier general in Saddam's army to help select and
lead an interim council for the city, which suffered from massive
looting. But as soon as the sheik's identity became known, a
powerful rival tribe nearly rioted while Shi'ites held a large
protest march.
In Baghdad, some facilities, such as
the UN compound and the Ministry of Petroleum, were secured by
American troops, while others, notably the Museum of Antiquities
with all its irreplaceable artifacts, were left exposed. Some
of the more egregious looters--those who invaded hospitals and
schools--were stopped and "arrested." But additional
large numbers of military police, light infantry forces, or paramilitaries
(carabiniere or gendarmes) are needed to free regular forces
to mop up organized resistance.
There is another reason for bringing
in new units with peacekeeping or police training. Military units
that have been fighting pitched battles are still psychologically
oriented to kill people and destroy things. This is not the mindset
conducive to policing or to reestablishing public order. The
distinctions between missions and operational environment are
such that U.S. (and other) military units assigned to peacekeeping
duty in Bosnia and Kosovo receive special training in "peace
operations" before they are deployed--and they are coming
from non-combat environments. Even Marines, trained for the "three
block war" (theoretically enabling a unit to switch from
humanitarian assistance in one spot to more active peacekeeping
in another and/or to engaging in deadly combat in a third), would
expect that one of these three options was their initial primary
mission. And this expectation would set their psychological outlook
and inform their actions vis-a-vis the civilian population.
Obviously, it is still early days. Military
forces are still dealing with remnants of Saddam's fedayeen around
Tikrit and they continue to engage small groups resisting the
coalition around other towns (i.e., near Mansour). Even so, there
are some lessons that can already be reaffirmed or drawn.
No matter how remote the possibility,
never give up hope that prisoners taken by the enemy will be
recovered alive. A corollary is to plan and conduct operations
that minimize civilian death and destruction even if this means
forgoing some military-related mobile targets placed in civilian
areas in contravention of international law. Minimizing civilian
deaths might be the difference between recovering prisoners alive
or dead. It also can go far toward minimizing suspicions about
the true motives for war. Be prepared for rapid transitions in
missions. When one country (or coalition of countries) occupies
another, the occupying power(s) does not have the luxury of discretely
segmenting its activities into, for example, full-scale war,
mopping-up remaining opposition, reestablishing order and basic
services, occupation duty, humanitarian relief, and re-integration
into the world community. Just as there is in the military a
spectrum of actions from high- to low-intensity warfare that
invariably overlaps, so too is there a spectrum of post-combat
military and civilian activities that must be undertaken. It
is just as vital to build and then execute a highly flexible,
well-resourced plan to win the post-war battle of public expectations
as it is to devise and execute a highly flexible military campaign
plan. In reconstituting a civil administration, particularly
in a country in which the previous civil administration was highly
repressive and of long duration, those among the population who
work with the occupying power as interim leaders must command
the respect and support of significant segments of the public.
It is particularly important for the occupying power to understand
the make-up and status of any surviving, organized elements of
civil society, for the leaders of these groups might command
wide respect--or they might be prone to the same authoritarianism
as the just-deposed regime. Above all, biases for or against
types of organizations (e.g., religion) participating in or excluded
from governance in the occupying country's political system should
not prejudice the selections made for governance in the occupied
country. Whenever possible, the emerging governmental forms should
be connected to indigenous traditions and previous national political
experiences. Do not plan on spontaneous public acclaim and a
popular uprising in support of an invading power. As oppressive
as a regime might be, in one sense it is tolerable if it is indigenous.
To impose a regime of outsiders, whether from the occupying country
or exiles from the occupied country, more often than not breeds
resentment and rejection of significant reforms. Anticipate civil
unrest and provide sufficient resources--civil affairs units
and military police--to control significant facilities of the
previous regime. This was not done, even though it was clear
early in the campaign that large-scale civil disorder would occur
as the larger towns were captured and Ba'ath party rule collapsed.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, interviewed April 13, rejected
the phrasing that the U.S. "allowed" looting, defiantly
declaring "that's what happens when you go from a dictatorship
with repressed order, police state to something that is going
to be different. There's a transition period, and no one is control....
We don't allow bad things to happen. Bad things do happen in
life, and people do loot."
Another option is to create and finance
a large standing cadre of armed international police trained
for early entry into a failed or defeated state. The main responsibility
of this force would be the rapid restoration of civil law and
order--thereby obviating any inclination by military commanders
to impose martial law. A companion activity would screen for
suitability in the new system policemen from the deposed regime
who were not involved in human rights abuses. Once civil order
is restored, additional screening, recruiting, and training (or
re-training) of police candidates, and monitoring their performance
against international policing standards, could proceed. A prototype
for this option is the European Union's (plus Russia, Canada,
and Turkey) 512 person Bosnia-Herzegovina police training and
monitoring force that assumed these duties in January 2003 from
the UN. Whether or not the UN sanctions a military action, it
must take the lead in developing with relevant nongovernmental
humanitarian aid agencies plans for both stockpiling and the
"rolling" distribution of immediate humanitarian relief
supplies (water, food, essential medical supplies) in the wake
of military operations. In Operation Iraqi Freedom, civilian
populations lost electricity, fresh water, sanitation, and access
to food subsidies for days, with the lack of clean water being
the most critical. Reciprocal planning by and cooperation from
the occupying power will be required to minimize disease and
malnutrition and to ensure that minimal substitute services are
available on a predictable basis.
Organizations that might have opposed
war must not adopt the position that by participating in planning
for post-conflict relief efforts or for new institutions of governance,
they are somehow legitimizing the war or compromising their position.
What is paramount both during and after a war is the health and
well-being of the civilian population. But for the UN and nongovernmental
agencies to be most effective, the warring government(s) must
share information and permit access to the conflict area as soon
as possible. In short, the combatants must respect the independence
and neutrality of these humanitarian organizations.
If people remain the focus, one other
vital service that the UN and nongovernmental organizations can
provide is to constantly remind the warring parties of their
obligations to minimize the harm inflicted on noncombatants.
If minimizing harm seems too much of a restraint, then the motives
and justification for the war must be questioned--and the answers
might suggest that war was not the answer.
Dan Smith
is a military affairs analyst for Foreign
Policy in Focus and a retired U.S. army colonel and senior
fellow on Military Affairs at the Friends
Committee on National Legislation. He can be reached at:
dan@fcnl.org.
Yesterday's
Features
Uri
Avnery
Operation "Syrian Freedom":
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Jorge
Mariscal
"They Died Trying to Become
Students": the Future of Latinos in an Era of War and Occupation
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