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"I prefer the most unfair
peace to the most righteous war."
Cicero
Israel is in a state of post-war trauma.
Its 34 day pounding of Lebanon has achieved none of the stated
goals and has left the public furious at the incompetence of
the Olmert government. 118 soldiers were killed in the conflict
and Israel's celebrated "power of deterrence" was smashed
to smithereens. Nothing was gained. In the north, industry and
commerce were brought to a complete standstill while the local
people were shunted off to fallout shelters for weeks on end.
What for?
Hezbollah hasn't been "disarmed"
and the two captured Israeli soldiers haven't been returned.
The war was abruptly called off when Olmert couldn't bear the
rising death-toll, a fact that was not lost on Hezbollah's leader,
Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah said from the very beginning that
the only way to beat Israel was by "killing soldiers and
destroying weapons". Olmert's retreat just proves that that
Nasrallah was right.
Kenneth Besig summarized the
feelings of many Israelis in his comments in the Jerusalem Post:
"Fewer than 5,000 poorly-armed
Hezbollah terrorists stood off the mighty IDF for over a month.
An Islamic terrorist gang with no tanks, no artillery, no fighter
jets, no attack helicopters, and just a few RPG's and rifles
held to a standstill nearly 30,000 crack IDF troops with the
finest tanks, the best artillery, the fastest and most advanced
fighter-jets and attack helicopters in the world. And they can
still empty our northern communities with their rockets whenever
they want. If that is not a victory, then the word has no meaning."
Besig may be wrong when he
calls Hezbollah "terrorists", but many Israelis agree
with his overall analysis. Israel may have decimated Lebanon,
but no one believes they won the war.
Since the ceasefire began,
the recriminations and finger-pointing have only gotten worse.
The daily gnashing-of-teeth in the media has reached a crescendo
with every major newspaper calling for the resignations of Olmert,
Defense Minister Peretz and "George Armstrong" Halutz.
Disgruntled reservists are flocking to the streets in public
protests calling for "heads-to-roll" while hundreds
of IDF regulars have signed petitions demanding an independent
inquiry into the botched war plans.
"I'm telling Ehud Olmert
and Emir Peretz to look me in the eye and tell me they are fit
to hold their posts," said Sgt. Major Lior Vilnes one of
the many protestors.
So what does this firestorm
of public outrage augure for Lebanon and the prospects for peace
in the region?
The probability of peace "breaking
out" has never looked more dismal. Public opinion is compelling
Olmert to restart the war to salvage his battered career. Already,
government officials have begun talking about a "second
round" of hostilities, a euphemism that is being reiterated
with worrisome regularity in the press. The mood in Israel is
ugly and many believe that it foreshadows greater violence ahead.
Olmert is surrounded by "hawks"
from the Sharon era who brush aside any plan that doesn't involve
force. That makes military action all the more likely even though
the objectives are as ambiguous as they were before.
Eli Yishai, Vice Prime Minister,
sums up the current thinking in the Olmert administration:
"No army in the world
is more moral than the IDF.We cannot be bleeding hearts while
our citizens are being hurt. If Lebanese citizens pay the price,
they will rise up against Hezbollah. I have proposed that we
damage infrastructure and flatten villages because Hezbollah
personnel must know they are not immune. We should make it clear
to them that all residents in villages from which firepower is
launched at IDF soldiers will be warned and required to leave
their homes in 48 hours. And later these villages will be bombed
from the air. That policy would have assured that Lebanese citizens
would not permit Hezbollah to live next to them." (from
Haaretz)"
Isn't this the same flawed-logic
that led to "shock and awe"? What gives people like
Yishai and Olmert such confidence in violence when it hasn't
worked in 40 years of occupation?
The penchant among the Israeli
high-command for resolving political issues with brute force
doesn't bode well for Lebanon. Israel wants to settle accounts
with Nasrallah and reestablish its dominance in the region, but
that can only be accomplished by dealing a knockout blow to Hezbollah.
Olmert has no chance of defeating
Hezbollah. Guerilla groups disappear in one place and pop up
in another; crushing them is nearly impossible. The clueless
Prime Minister is probably more interested in "saving face"
than in protecting Israel's national security. In truth, Olmert's
bruised vanity won't allow him to be remembered as the "man
who lost the war to Hezbollah". This will lead to a steady
escalation of incitements (like the commando raid near Baalbeck
three days ago) which will eventually trigger all-out war.
Restarting the conflict will
only create greater threats to Israel's security. It will strengthen
the Lebanese resistance, weaken the already-feeble Siniora government,
rouse more hatred for the United States, destabilize friendly
Arab regimes, and further erode the perception of Israeli invincibility.
Israel has little to gain and
everything to lose.
Never the less, Olmert will
probably disregard the consequences and blunder ahead in the
futile hope of silencing his critics while indulging his right-wing
allies. Anything less than a full-blown assault on his Lebanese
arch-rival would be tantamount to political seppuku.
Former Shin Bet chief and current
Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter, made a reasonable proposal
that could deescalate tensions and extract Olmert from his current
predicament. Dichter said, "We must not sit and wait for
the next war. A peace agreement in exchange for giving back the
Golan Heights would disconnect Syria from Iran and disarm Hezbollah."
Dichter's advice is dead-on.
If Israel conceded the Golan to Syria, then Syria would cut-off
supplies and weaponry to Hezbollah setting the stage for a comprehensive
peace treaty between the 3 nations.
It's a long-shot, but it could
work and it reduces the liklihood of more fighting.
Unfortunately, Olmert quickly
dismissed Dichter's plan saying, "We are not going into
any adventure when terror is on their side. When Syria stops
support for terror, then we will be happy to negotiate with them."
Blah, blah, blah; terror, terror,
terror; the same worn mantra we've heard from Bush for the last
5 years while the entire region is doused in gasoline and ready
to light up like a Roman candle.
Olmert has erected another
road-block to peace and set the stage for a "second round"
of devastation and bloodshed. His choice is bound to create more
enemies for Israel while condemning thousands of Lebanese civilians
to death.
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